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Industrija
2013, vol. 41, br. 2, str. 27-47
jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
doi:10.5937/industrija41-4136


Misterija globalnog suficita i njegove posledice
Institut ekonomskih nauka, Beograd

e-adresa: marko.malovic@ien.bg.ac.rs

Sažetak

U ovom radu bavimo se fenomenom sve indikativnijih globalnih debalansa i kaskajuće geneze računovodstva bilansa plaćanja u pokušaju da obuhvati i dokumentuje aktuelne mutacije u međunarodnoj trgovini i finansijama. Naime, iako bi platnobilansni saldo sveta kao celine trebalo da bude nulti, budući da međunarodna trgovina robom, uslugama i finansijskom aktivom treba da je igra s nultim ishodom, naša planeta ispostavlja se ostvaruje nezanemarljiv i rastući platnobilansni suficit, koji će po projekcijama dostići čak 1% svetskog BDP do 2015. godine! Da nedoumica bude bizarnija, platnobilansna statistika IMF sve do 2004. detektovala je istrajni platnobilansni deficit svetske privrede, što je P. Krugman nazvao 'misterijom iščezlog suficita'. Međutim, globalni suficit je poput osvetnika ponovo među nama - otud smo ovim člankom pokušali da proniknemo u pomenuti fenomen te identifikujemo kako njegove uzročnike tako i verovatne ekonomske posledice. Zaključci, koji se nameću, mogu se svesti na 6 tačaka: 1) tokom prevashodno međunarodnih finansijskih kriza kvalitet i tačnost platnobilansne statistike pogoršava se u svetskim razmerama, 2) neto globalni debalansi po svoj su prilici ipak mnogo manji nego što se poslovično misli, 3) pravi krivci za debalanse najverovatnije nisu dosad uobičajeno (o)sumnjičeni, 4) međunarodna trgovina u bruto izrazu ispoljava oštra odstupanja u odnosu na standardnu spoljnotrgovinsku statistiku kada se koriguje dekomponovanim neto izvozom baziranim na dodatoj vrednosti i uvozom oslobođenim dvaput zaračunatog procesuiranog i posrednog izvoza, 5) takođe, namerno krivotvorenje prekograničnih prinosa na investicije te manipulacije transfernim cenama od strane MNK skoro sigurno značajno doprinose registrovanim globalnim nesaglasjima, te, konačno 6) čak i najnovije, šesto izdanje priručnika IMF za sastavljanje platnog i obračunskog bilansa eksplicitno tretira jedva par u ovom radu identifikovanih faktora koji su odgovorni za misteriju povratka globalnog suficita.

Ključne reči

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