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2014, vol. 42, br. 3, str. 23-39
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Tranzicione privrede tokom svetske ekonomske krize - pristup razlike u razlikama
Transition economies during global economic crisis: A difference in differences approach
Projekat: Mogućnosti poboljšanja intelektualnih, motoričkih i kardio-respiratornih sposobnosti dece pomoću kinezioloških aktivnosti (MPNTR - 179011)
Evropske integracije i društveno-ekonomske promene privrede Srbije na putu ka EU (MPNTR - 47009)
Sažetak
Ovaj rad analizira uticaj globalne ekonomske krize na zemlje u tranziciji koje su posmatrano po padu GDP bile najviše pogođene uticajem globalne ekonomske krize. Stoga je stopa rasta za region pala sa 8,4% u 2007.godini na -3,9% u 2009.godini. Cilj rada je da utvrdi koje su zemlje u zavisnosti od nivoa napretka u sprovođenju tranzicionih reformi (merenog tranzicionim indikatorom) bile više izložene efektima globalne ekonomske krize, odnosno koje su zemlje u petogodišnjem periodu 2009-2013. godine brže ostvarile napredak mereno stopom ekonomskog rasta. Istraživanje se bazira na pristupu razlike u razlikama i obuhvatilo je 29 zemalja u tranziciji. Rezultati pokazuju je da privrede koje su manje napredovale na putu tranzicionih reformi (tranzicioni indikator manji od 3) su imale manji udar krize u prvom naletu 2009. godine. Pored toga, ova podgrupa zemalja u tranziciji je bolje prevazišla krizu u petogodišnjem periodu 2009-2013 obzirom da su za 18 procentnih poena imale veću kumulativnu stopu rasta u tih pet godina nego zemlje u tranziciji koje su uvele sve principe tržišne privrede.
Abstract
This paper describes how the global economic crisis impacted economies in transition, which in terms of GDP decline, were the most negatively impacted economies in the world. Therefore the region went from a growth rate of around 8.4% in 2007 to -3.9% in 2009. The aim of this paper is to determine which countries depending on the level of progress in the transitional reforms implementation (measured by transition indicator) were more exposed to the effects of the global economic crisis, i.e. which countries in the five-year period 2009-2013 faster showed progress as measured by the economic growth rate. The research is based on difference in differences (DinD) methodology and covered 29 economies in transition. The results showed that economies with lower progress in the way of transition reforms (transition indicator is less than 3) suffered smaller impact of the crisis in its first wave in 2009. In addition, this subset of countries in transition better overcame the crisis in the five-year period 2009-2013 given that they showed 18 percentage points higher cumulative rate of growth in those five years than the transition countries that adopted all the principles of market economy.
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