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2015, vol. 62, br. 1, str. 41-51
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Uticaj cena hrane na inflaciju - slučaj Srbije
Inflation impact of food prices: Case of Serbia
Projekat: Rizici finansijskih institucija i tržišta u Srbiji - mikroekonomski i makroekonomski pristup (MPNTR - 179005)
Sažetak
Cene hrane tradicionalno utiču na inflaciju u čitavom svetu. Promene u ovim cenama uglavnom dolaze zbog promena u ponudi, a manje zbog promena u tražnji. Ako se tretiraju kao šok ponude, monetarna politika na njih ne treba da reaguje. Ipak, cene hrane su deo zvanične inflacije čiji se nivo zvanično cilja od strane većine centralnih banaka. Srbija zvanično sprovodi Ciljanje inflacije i suočena je sa ozbiljnim izazovima uzrokovanim nestabilnošću cena hrane. Nestabilnost cena hrane u Srbiji otežava projekcije buduće inflacije, i može imati negativan uticaj na inflaciona očekivanja i poverenje javnosti u (tj. kredibilitet) centralne banke, a sve to je od izuzetnog značaja za uspeh Ciljanja inflacije. Postoji nekoliko važnih i mogućih poboljšanja koja mogu da smanje nestabilnost cena hrane i ograniče negativan uticaj nestabilnih cena hrane na indeks potrošačkih cena (IPC) kao meru inflacije. Ova poboljšanja su vrlo važna za uspeh Ciljanja inflacije u Srbiji.
Abstract
Food prices traditionally have an impact on inflation around the world. Movements in these prices are coming more from the supply side, then from the demand side. If treated as a supply shock, monetary policy should not react. However, food prices are part of headline inflation that is an official target for most central banks. Serbia conducts Inflation targeting and faces serious challenges with food price volatility. Food price volatility in Serbia hampers inflation forecasting, and may have a negative influence on inflationary expectations and public confidence in (i.e. credibility of) the Central bank, all of crucial importance for success of Inflation targeting. There are several important possible improvements that may decrease volatility of food prices but also limit negative impact of food price volatility on Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a measure of inflation. These improvements are very important for success of Inflation targeting in Serbia.
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