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2013, vol. 61, br. 1-2, str. 1-18
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Rizici zakasnele reindustrijalizacije
Risks of delayed reindustrialization
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Ekonomski fakultet, Katedra za poslovnu ekonomiju i menadžment
Sažetak
Za Srbiju je 2012. godina bila teška pošto tranzicija još nije završena dok se u privredi beleže ireverzibilni tokovi. Prošle godine usporeno je pristupanje Evropskoj Uniji dok je privreda zabeležila negativan rast od 2%, što je bilo gore od očekivanja. Očito je daje tokom krize koja traje od 2008. godine je došlo do pogoršanja makroekonomskih osnova sistema. Recesija je teško pogodila tržište rada. Stopa nezaposlenosti koja je bila 14,4% pre krize, u krizi gravitira oko 25%. Projekcije još više obeshrabruju pošto se za naredne tri godine očekuje da ce se stopa nezaposlenosti stabilizovati na 28%. Visoka nezaposlenost konstantno smanjuje potrošnju (investicionu i finalnu). Privreda Srbije je u drugom talasu recesije sa duplim dnom. Globalni stres faktori ubrzavaju mehanizme prenošenja negativnih uticaja duboko ukorenjenih lokalnih strukturnih neravnoteža. Javni sektor i veći deo privatnog sektora stvaraju gubitke. Bankarstvo je profitabilno ali kriza i negativna očekivanja utiču na pogoršanje njegovih performansi. Sektor stanovništva pati od niskog dohotka i nezaposlenosti. Ovaj članak istražuje uticaj strukturnih neravnoteža na apetit investitora za rizikom i mogućnosti oporavka. U pitanju je dubok pogled na privredu Srbije iz različitih perspektiva. Dubok i širok pristup treba da omogući da se prodre u nekoliko ključnih problema, dominantno iz poslovne perspektive. Predloženi antikrizni program ima dva cilja, finansijsku konsolidaciju i reindustrijalizaciju na osnovu povećanja proizvodnje sirovina i repromaterijala (primarno energije i hrane) u prvoj fazi, kao i industrijske proizvodnje u drugoj fazi. Uloga države i važnost javnog sektora takođe su predmet analize posredstvom industrijske politike u energetici. Naš rad je podeljen u četiri dela. Prvi deo obuhvata strategijsku reviziju privrede Srbije. Ukazaćemo na ključne makroekonomske indikatore i indikatore ranjivosti kao i na negativne trendove u glavnim sektorima. Drugi deo daje izglede za globalnu privredu sa posebnom osvrtom na učinkovitost mogućih privrednih modela. Treći deo analizira reindustrijalizaciju kao način da se promeni postojeći privredni model. Konačno, u četvrtom delu biće analizirani rizici u energetskom sektoru kao sektoru koji je prioritetan za ekonomski oporavak.
Abstract
2012 was a tough year for Serbia because transition was not completed yet and the economy went sharply into reverse. Last year the accession process to the EU slowed down and economic growth shrank by 2%, which is much more than expected. Deterioration of macroeconomic fundamentals during the crisis 2008-is evident. The labor market has been hit hard by the recession. The unemployment rate, which stood at 14.4% before the crisis, is gravitating around 25% during the crisis. Projections are even more discouraging, as it is expected to stabilize at 28% in the following three years. Persistently high unemployment has dampened consumption (investment and final). Now Serbia's economy is faced with the second dip of double-dip recession. Transmission mechanisms of deeply embedded structural imbalances are accelerated by global stress factors. Public sector and great majority of private sector are loss makers. Banking industry is profitable but in downturn negative prospects are affecting its deteriorating performances. Households suffer from low income and high unemployment. This paper investigates the influence of the structural imbalances on the investor's risk appetite and potentials for recovery. The analysis includes an in-depth look at Serbia's economy through several different lenses. We take a view that is both broad and deep, striving to drill down into several key issues, but mainly from business perspective. Proposed anti-crisis program has two purposes, financial consolidation and reindustrialization through expansion of commodities production (energy and food primarily) in the first stage as well as manufacturing in the second stage. The role of the state and the importance of the public sector are also taken into equation via industrial policy in energy sector. Our work is structured into four parts. The first part addresses the strategic audit of Serbia's economy. We present key macroeconomic and vulnerability indicators and adverse trends in the main sectors. The second part examines global economic prospects with a special emphasis on alternative economic models. The third part considers reindustrialization as a way of rethinking the current economic model. Finally, we put energy sector as priority one for economic recovery in the risk analysis framework in the fourth part.
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