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2014, vol. 62, br. 3-4, str. 217-227
Trgovina i pristup EU - primer Srbije
Institut ekonomskih nauka, Beograd
Projekat:
Evropske integracije i društveno-ekonomske promene privrede Srbije na putu ka EU (MPNTR - 47009)
Izazovi i perspektive strukturnih promena u Srbiji: strateški pravci ekonomskog razvoja i usklađivanja sa zahtevima EU (MPNTR - 179015)

Ključne reči: izvozna konkurentnost; pristupanje EU; trgovinska liberalizacija; trgovinski efekti; poljoprivredni proizvodi; nepoljoprivredni proizvodi
Sažetak
Rad analizira izvoznu konkurentnost Srbije u poređenju sa Evropskom unijom i potencijalne trgovinske efekte scenarija integracije Srbije u EU. Posmatrali smo odabrane makro-ekonomske pokazatelje u cilj u određivanja eksterne konkurentnosti Srbije. Trgovinski efekti posmatranog scenarija su ocenjeni korišćenjem modela parcijalne ravnoteže pod nazivom Global Simulation Model (GSIM). Posmatrani scenario podrazumeva potpunu trgovinsku liberalizaciju između EU i Srbije, i shodno tome, primenu EU carinskih tarifa od strane Srbije prema trgovinskim partnerima. Zaključili smo da Srbija značajno zaostaje u pogledu kvaliteta izvoznih proizvoda i strukturnog razvoja. Simulacija predviđa povećanje izvoza poljoprivrednih proizvoda Srbije u EU za 28% u odnosu na period pre članstva. Predviđeni nivo uvoza poljoprivrednih proizvoda Srbije iz EU veći je za 25%. Analiza otkriva da bi srpski izvoz nepoljoprivrednih proizvoda u EU mogao biti veći za 12,8% u poređenju sa nivoom pre liberalizacije, dok bi uvoz istih proizvoda iz EU porastao za 13,4%. Trgovinska simulacija implicira da bi Srbija izvozila više u pogledu obe vrste proizvoda u EU, dok bi se izvoz u Rusiju i ostatak sveta smanjio. Takođe, model implicira da bi Srbija profitirala od članstva u pogledu indikatora blagostanja.
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O članku

jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: originalan članak
DOI: 10.5937/ekopre1404217D
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 06.05.2015.

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