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2016, vol. 68, br. 2, str. 277-289
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Moderno pobunjeništvo - Islamska država
Modern insurgency: Islamic State
aGeneralštab Vojske Srbije, 224. centar za elektronska dejstva bUniverzitet odbrane, Vojna akademija, Beograd
Sažetak
Razvoj savremenih tehnologija, pored ostalog, utiče i na moderno pobunjeništvo. Savremene tehnologije unapređuju umrežavanje i sinhronizaciju pobunjeničkih snaga. Za razliku od klasičnog pobunjeništva koje je karakterisala borba za oslobođenje od određenog oblika ugnjetavanja, karakteristika modernog pobunjeništva je nastajanje i opstajanje novih entiteta, identiteta i ideja. Islamska država, kao najuspešnija moderna pobunjenička organizacija, nastaje na talasu različitih socijalnih, političkih i ekonomskih tenzija na Bliskom istoku i na širem području. Ona je, pre svega, osporila nametnutu teritorijalnu podelu regiona koja je nastala nakon pada Otomanskog carstva. Takođe, uspela je da na osvojenoj teritoriji uspostavi koncept vlasti, nacionalnog suvereniteta i identiteta. Najpoznatija je po svojoj nemilosrdnoj taktici koju je koristila u dobijanju kontrole nad teritorijom, ali pitanje koje svi danas postavljaju jeste da li će ta taktika biti dovoljna da organizacija oformi državu, dakle, uspešno i održivo vlada i konačno dobije širu podršku naroda na osvojenoj teritoriji, a ne samo podršku boraca i izvršitelja vlasti na zauzetoj teritoriji. Za sada organizacija pokazuje znake rasta i razvoja, strategijski je prilagodljiva, ekonomski održiva, a medije efikasno koristi. Religiju koristi kao osnov za delovanje, ali i za upravljanje, mada u njenim redovima ima i ljudi koje za delovanje ne motiviše 'samo' religija. Konačno, nakon tri godine postojanja Islamske države novi obrazac pobunjeništva je uspostavljen, tako da i protivpobunjeništvo mora evoluirati ako želi uspeh protiv Islamske države.
Abstract
The development of new technologies, among other things, has had an effect on modern insurgency as well. Modern technologies enhance networking and synchronization of insurgent forces. Unlike traditional insurgency, which was characterized by the struggle for liberation from a certain form of oppression, the characteristic of modern insurgency is the creation and survival of new entities, identities and ideas. Islamic State, as the most successful modern insurgent organization, emerges in a wave of different social, political and economic tensions in the Middle East and wider area. It has, above all, contested the territorial division of the region imposed after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. It has also succeeded to establish a concept of government, national sovereignty and identity on the conquered territory. It is best known for its ruthless tactics used to win the control of the territory, but the question widely asked today is whether this tactics will be sufficient for this organization to create a state and, therefore, to successfully and sustainably govern and eventually gain wider support of the people on the taken territory, not only the support of fighters and power enforcers in the occupied territory. The organization has so far manifested the signs of growth and development. It is strategically flexible, economically viable, and uses the media efficiently. Religion is used as a basis for action, but also for control, although in its ranks there are people who are not motivated for action by religion 'only'. Finally, after three years of the Islamic State's existence, a new form of insurgency has been established, so that counterinsurgency must evolve if success in the fight against the Islamic State is sought.
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