- citati u SCIndeksu: 0
- citati u CrossRef-u:0
- citati u Google Scholaru:[
]
- posete u poslednjih 30 dana:3
- preuzimanja u poslednjih 30 dana:3
|
|
2017, vol. 69, br. 8, str. 31-38
|
Strategijska raskršća i hibridni rat - novi fenomen ili novo ime za stare pristupe konfliktima
Strategic crossroads and hybrid warfare: A new phenomenon or new name for old approach to conflicts
Sažetak
Globalna geopolitička prestrojavanja imaju svoju kompleksnu dinamiku koja neizostavno ima uticaja na sve zemlje u svetu pa tako i na Srbiju. Gotovo u svakom trenutku, istovremeno na više mesta u svetu odvijaju se sukobi sa naizgled lokalno specifičnim karakteristikama. Hibridne pretnje i hibridno ratovanje su termini koji su postali vrlo česti u upotrebi poslednjih nekoliko godina. U stručnim krugovima sreću se podeljena mišljenja u vezi pojmovnog određenja ovih pojmova. Polazeći od klasičnog poimanja rata kao nastavka politike drugim sredstvima, može se logičkom analizom doći do suštine poimanja fenomena koji se danas često označava kao hibridno ratovanje. Kompleksnosti problema značajno doprinose uporedni procesi globalizacije i tehnološkog razvoja naročito u sferi informacionih i komunikacionih tehnologija, koje, u kombinaciji sa ostalim faktorima, unose nove složenosti i izazove, kao i nastanak i razvoj novih fenomena u sferi društvenih i međunarodnih odnosa. Srbija sa svojom pozicijom na jednom od svetskih geostrategijskih raskršća svakako može biti suočena sa hibridnim pretnjama i u budućnosti, tim pre što se nalazi i na raskrsnici susretanja i sukobljavanja ideoloških i verskih koncepata. Bliža i dalja istorija regiona u kome se nalazi i Srbija pruža dokaze o nizu prelomnih perioda za Srbiju sa veoma snažnim uticajima i događajima koji su usledili. Sadržajno praćenje aktuelnih dešavanja, trendova i noviteta u savremenim sukobima na svetskoj sceni, kao i kritička analiza istorijskih događaja, mogu biti od koristi u strategijskom promišljanju u kontekstu Srbije i strategijskih raskršća.
Abstract
Global geopolitical changes encompass complex dynamics that inevitably affects all countries in the world including Serbia. Almost every moment, simultaneously at several places in the world, there are conflicts with apparently locally specific characteristics. Hybrid threats and hybrid warfare are terms that have become quite common in recent years. Opinion is divided on the issue of the conceptual determination of these terms in expert circles. Starting from the classic conception of warfare as a continuation of politics by other means, a logical analysis can lead to the essence of the concept of the phenomenon, which is often nowadays referred to as hybrid warfare. The simultaneous processes of globalization and technological development, especially in the sphere of information and communication technology, which, in combination with other factors, introduces new complexities and challenges, as well as the emergence and development of new phenomena in the sphere of social and international relations, significantly contribute to the problem complexity. Serbia, with its position at one of the world geostrategic crossroads, can certainly face hybrid threats in the future, as well, since it is at the crossroads of encountering and clashing ideological and religious concepts. The near and far history of the region that Serbia is located in also renders evidence of a number of turning points for Serbia with very strong effects and events that followed. Continuous monitoring of the current events, trends and new issues in contemporary conflicts on the world scene, as well as a critical analysis of historical events, can be useful in strategic consideration in the context of Serbia and strategic crossroads.
|
|
|
Reference
|
1
|
Cordesman, A. (2007) Lessons of the 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah War. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies
|
|
d'agostino Davi, M. (2010) Hybrid warfare: Report GAO-10-1036R hybrid warfare. Washington, DC: US Government Accountability office, September 10
|
|
de France, O., Witney, N. (2013) Europe’s strategic cacophony. u: Policy brief ECFR 77, European Council on Foreign Relations, April, 1-16
|
|
European External Action Service (EEAS) (2015) Food-for-thought paper: Countering hybrid threats. u: Report 8887/15, Council of European Union - EU, 13 May
|
1
|
Federal Government (2016) White Paper on German security policy and the future of the bundeswehr. Germany, July
|
|
HM Government (2015) National security strategy and strategic defence and security review 2015. United Kingdom, November, www.gov.uk/government/publications
|
2
|
Hoffman, F. (2007) Conflicts in the 21st century: The rise of hybrid wars. Arlington, Virginia: Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, December
|
3
|
Hoffman, F. (2009) Hybrid Threats: Reconceptualizing the Evolving Character of Modern Conflict. Strategic Forum, Institute of National Strategic Studies, NDU, April; 1-8; 240
|
|
Jagello 2000 (2015) Hybrid warfare: A new phenomenon in Europe’s security environment. Prague: Jagello 2000, Research paper
|
5
|
Korybko, A. (2015) Hybrid wars: The indirect adaptive approach to regime change. Institute for Strategic Studies and Predictions PFUR
|
|
Maigre, M. (2015) Nothing new in hybrid warfare: The Estonian experience and recommendations for NATO. u: Policy Brief. Foreign Policy Program, GMF - The German Marshall Fund, February
|
1
|
Mcculloh, T., Johnson, R. (2013) Hybrid warfare. u: JSOU Report 13-4, FL, USA: Joint Special Operations University
|
1
|
Miller, M. (2015) Hybrid warfare: Preparing for future conflict. u: Research Report, Air War College, Air University, 17 February
|
2
|
Ministry of Defence (2015) Global strategic trends: Out to 2045. Shrivenham, Wiltshire, United Kingdom: Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC)
|
1
|
Pindják, P. (2014) Deterring hybrid warfare: A chance for NATO and the EU to work together?. NATO Review, November, http://www.nato.int/docu/review/2014/Also-in-2014/Deterring-hybrid-warfare/EN/index.htm
|
1
|
Walker, R. (1998) Spec Fi: The United States marine corps and special operations. Monterey, CA, USA: Naval Postgraduate School, Master of Science thesis, December
|
|
|
|