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Industrija
2014, vol. 42, br. 3, str. 41-60
jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
doi:10.5937/industrija42-5740


Ekonometrijsko modeliranje determinanti tekućeg bilansa Srbije - Jackknife Model Averaging pristup
Institut društvenih nauka, Beograd

e-adresa: ppetrovic@idn.org.rs

Projekat

Društvene transformacije u procesu evropskih integracija - multidisciplinarni pristup (MPNTR - 47010)

Sažetak

Ovo istraživanje je posvećeno modeliranju determinanti tekućeg računa platnog bilansa Srbije za period Q1 2002 - Q4 2012. Uzimajući u obzir većinu relevantnih determinanti koje se javljaju u literaturi, primenom Jackknife Model Averaging tehnike, ocenjeno je 48 različitih modela, gde je za svaki model bilo potrebno oceniti 1254 jednačine i uprosečiti ih. Rezultati odabranih reprezentativnih modela pokazali su umerenu postojanost tekućeg računa platnog bilansa i pozitivan uticaj: fiskalnog salda, naftnog trgovinskog bilansa, odnosa razmene, relativnog dohotka i realnog efektivnog deviznog kursa, pri čemu treba naglasiti: (i) prilično snažan uticaj relativnog dohotka, (ii) činjenicu da pogoršanje naftnog trgovinskog bilansa utiče na pogoršanje ostalih komponenti tekućeg računa (najverovatnije preostalog dela spoljnotrgovinskog bilansa) i (iii) da pozitivan uticaj odnosa razmene otkriva funkcionalnost Harberger-Laursen-Metzler efekta u Srbiji. S druge strane, negativan uticaj uočen je u slučaju: relativnog ekonomskog rasta, bruto fiksnih investicija, neto inostrane aktive i trgovinske otvorenosti. Naročito se ističe snažan efekat relativnog ekonomskog rasta koji najverovatnije otkriva velika očekivanja građana da će njihov dohodak u budućnosti rasti, što se negativno odražava na tekući račun.

Ključne reči

saldo tekućeg bilansa; determinante tekućeg računa; Jackknife Model Averaging pristup; testovi jediničnog korena

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