Metrika članka

  • citati u SCindeksu: 0
  • citati u CrossRef-u:0
  • citati u Google Scholaru:[=>]
  • posete u poslednjih 30 dana:19
  • preuzimanja u poslednjih 30 dana:12
članak: 1 od 16  
Back povratak na rezultate
Megatrend revija
2019, vol. 16, br. 1, str. 1-23
jezik rada: srpski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
doi:10.5937/MegRev1901001R

Creative Commons License 4.0
Izvozni potencijal Srbije u EU
aVisoka škola za poslovnu ekonomiju i preduzetništvo, Beograd
bBeograd
cRepublički sekretarijat za javne politike, Beograd

e-adresa: vladimir.ristanovic@vspep.edu.rs, deusmm@ptt.net, sinisabarjaktarevic@gmail.com

Sažetak

Rad pokazuje primenu gravitacionog panel modela u oceni izvoznog potencijala Srbije u EU tokom perioda 2001-2017. godine. Gravitacioni model je dao efikasne ocene parametara modela I na ovom modelu se pokazao kao pogodan alat za ocenjivanje trgovinskih tokova između zemalja na uzorku 29 država, I to 28 članica EU I Srbija. Regresiona jednačina panel modela sadrži niz objašnjavajućih varijabli koje opisuju tokove trgovinske razmene. Veličina ekonomije (bruto domaći proizvod), kupovna moć stanovništva (bruto domaći proizvod po glavi stanovnika), I razdaljina (mera geografske udaljenosti između glavnih gradova država trgovinskih partnera) imaju merljive efekte na izvoz Srbije u EU. Rezultati analize pokazali su da veličina I kupovna moć trgovinskih partnera pozitivno utiču na izvoz roba iz Srbije u EU. Stoga, strukturu izvoza treba prilagoditi zahtevima velikih ekonomija I ekonomija koje imaju visok životni standard kako bi u budućnosti povećali izvoz u većem obimu. Ovo istraživanje može predstavljati dobru osnovu za analizu izvoznih potencijala Srbije.

Ključne reči

srpski izvoz; Evropska unija; gravitacioni panel model

Reference

Baldwin, R. (2011) Trade and Industrialization after Globalization's 2nd Unbundling: How Building and Joining a Supply Chain Are Different and why it Matters. u: NBER Working Paper 17716, Cambridge, MA
Bergstrand, J.H. (1985) The gravity equation in international trade: Some microeconomic foundation and empirical evidence. Review of Economic and Statistics, 67, 474-481
Bergstrand, J.H. (1989) The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor Proportion Theory in International Trade. Review of Economic and Statistics, 71, 143-153
Chan-Hyun, S. (2001) A gravity Model Analysis of Korea's Trade Patterns and the effects of a Regional Trading Agreement. u: Kitakyushu working Paper Senes Vol. 2001-09, The International Centre for the study of East Asian Development
Dragutinović-Mitrović, R. (2005) Limitation of the Gravity Model in Econometric Analysis of the Foreign Exchange. Economic Annals, no. 167, October-December, pp. 77-106
Eita, J.H., Jordaan, A.C. (2007) South africa's wood Export Potential Using a Gravity Model Approach University of Pretoria. u: Department of Economics Working Paper Series: 2007-23
Feenstra, R.C., Markusen, J.a., Rose, A.K. (1998) Undertstanding the home Market Effect and the Gravity Equation: The Role of Differentiating Goods. u: NBER Working Paper No. 6804, National Bureau of Economic Research
Gujarati, D.N. (2007) Basic Econometrics. New York: The McGraw-Hill, 4th ed
Helpman, E. (1998) The Structure of Foreign Trade. u: NBER Working Papers No. 6752
Ilić, S. (2012) Is there potential for trade growth?: A gravity approach in the case of Serbia. Budapest: Central European University, Department of Economics
Krugman, P., Obstfeld, M., Melitz, M.J. (1996) International Economics: Theory & Policy. Pearson, 9 th ed
Kushtrim, B., Qineti, A., Ibraimi, S., Imeri, A. (2015) Trade and Integration: A Gravity Model of Trade for Selected EU Candidate Countries. u: International Conference of Agricultural Economists, Univerista Degli Studi Di Milano, August 8-14, Italy
Markusen, J.R., Venables, A.J. (1996) The Theory of Endowment, Intra-Industry, and Multinational Trade. u: NBER Working Paper No. 5529
Martinez-Zaroso, I., Nowak-Lehmann, F. (2003) Augmented gravity model: an application to Mercosur-European Union trade flows. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18, 291-316
Martínez-Zarzoso, I., Horsewood, N. (2005) Regional trading agreements: Dynamic panel data evidence from the gravity model
Mátyás, L. (2000) The Gravity Model: Some Econometric Considerations. World Economy, 21, 397-401
Mitrofanov,, Vladimirovič, A. (2014) Belorussian export: Gravity model approach. Molodoj učenyj, №7, pp. 382-385, https://moluch.ru/archive/66/11003/ (data obraŝeniâ: 03.08.2018
Montanari, M. (2005) EU trade with Balkans, large room for growth?. Eastern European Economics, 43(1): 59-81
Oguledo, V.I., Macphee, C.R. (1994) Gravity models: A reformulation and an application to discriminatory trade arrangements. Applied Economics, 26(2): 107-120
Porojan, A. (2000) Trade flows andd spatial effects: the gravity modei revised. Review of University College London, 4, 168-173
Ristanović, V. (2015) Struktura industrijske proizvodnje u Srbiji nakon 2000-te. Ekonomski pogledi, vol. 17, br. 4, str. 159-172
Ristanović, V., Barjaktarević, S., Cogoljević, D. (2017) Direction of Serbian Trade: Gravity Model Based on Pool Data. EuroEconomica, Vol 36, no. 1
Subramanian, A., Kessler, M. (2013) The hyperglobalization of Trade and Its Future. u: Working Paper 3, Global Citizen Foundation
Ševela, M. (2012) Gravity-type model of Czech agricultural export. Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika), 48(No. 10): 463-466