Trends in mortality rates of colorectal cancer in central Serbia during the period 1999-2014: A joinpoint regression analysis

Šipetić-Grujičić, Sandra; Nikolić, Aleksandra; Pislar, Alja; Pavlović, Aleksandar; Banašević, Marijana; Maksimović, Jadranka; Krivokapić, Zoran

doi:10.5937/ZZ1903033S

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Zdravstvena zaštita

2019, vol. 48, br. 3, str. 33-42

Umiranje usled kolorektalnog raka u Centralnoj Srbiji u periodu 1999-2014 - "Joinpoint" regresiona analiza

Šipetić-Grujičić Sandra^a

, Nikolić Aleksandra^a, Pislar Alja^a, Pavlović Aleksandar^a, Banašević Marijana^b, Maksimović Jadranka^a, Krivokapić Zoran^c

^aUniverzitet u Beogradu, Medicinski fakultet, Institut za epidemiologiju
^bDom zdravlja Voždovac, Beograd
^cKlinički centar Srbije, Klinika za digestivnu hirurgiju – I hirurška, Beograd + Univerzitet u Beogradu, Medicinski fakultet

e-adresa: sandra.grujicic2014@gmail.com

Projekat:

Epidemiološka istraživanja (MPNTR - 175042)

Ključne reči: rak kolorektuma; rak kolona; rak rektuma; mortalitet; trend; jointpoint regresiona analiza

Sažetak

Uvod/Cilj: U svetu, rak kolorektuma je treći vodeći uzrok umiranja kod muškaraca i drugi kod žena, i predstavlja jedan od vodećih uzroka umiranja među svim malignim tumorima. Cilj ovog rada je da se analizira trend mortaliteta usled raka kolorektuma u centralnoj Srbiji u periodu 1999-2014. godine. Metode: Od Instituta za javno zdravlje Srbije "Dr Milan Jovanović - Batut" preuzeti su podaci o mortalitetu za rak kolorektuma za period 1999-2014. godine. U cilju određivanja godišnje procentualne promene (APCs) umiranja i za identifikovanje kritičnih perioda kada su se dogodile značajne promene umiranja korišćena je joinpoint regresiona analiza. Rezultati: U centralnoj Srbiji, u periodu između 1999. i 2014. godine, rak kolorektuma je bio drugi vodeći uzrok umiranja, među svim malignim tumorima, kako za muškarce tako i za žene. Prosečna standardizovana stopa mortaliteta je bila 18,2 na 100.000 za muškarce i 10,5 na 100.000 za žene. Stope su bile 1,7 puta više kod muškaraca nego žena. U periodu 1999-2014, dolazi do značajnog porasta stope mortaliteta od raka kolorektuma od 1,3% godišnje kod muškaraca, dok je kod žena trend umiranja bio stabilan. Kod muškaraca je uočen značajan porast stope mortaliteta za rak kolona (APC - 1,8%) i rak rektosigmoidalnog prelaza (APC - 3,3%). Takođe, značajan porast umiranja beleži se kod muškaraca u uzrasta 35-74 godina, kao i kod muškaraca i žena uzrasta 75 i više godina. Zaključak: Rezultati ovog istraživanja ukazuju na porast mortaliteta usled kolorektalnog raka u Srbiji. Rad na boljoj primeni nacionalnog organizovanog skrininga mora biti od najvećeg značaja u Srbiji. Mere primarne prevencije treba uglavnom usredsrediti na održavanje optimalne telesne težine i uravnoteženu ishranu, kao i na prestanak pušenja i konzumiranja alkohola.

Abstract

Introduction/Aim: Colorectal cancer is the third most common cancer in men and the second most common cancer in women worldwide and one of the major causes of cancer-related mortality. The aim of this study was to analyze the trends in mortality rates of colorectal cancer in central Serbia in the period 1999-2014. Methods: Mortality data for colorectal cancer, for the period 1999 - 2014, were taken from the of the Institute of Public Health of Serbia " Dr Milan Jovanović - Batut". Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate annual percent changes (APCs) in mortality and to identify critical stages in time where significant changes in trend occurred. Results: In central Serbia, in the period between 1999 and 2014, colorectal cancer was the second most common cause of mortality in both men and women. The average standardized mortality rate was 18.2 in men (per 100,000) and 10.5 in women (per 100,000). Rates were 1.7 times higher in men, with a remarkable annual increase of colorectal cancer mortality rate of 1.3% in the period 1999-2014, while in women the mortality rates were steady. In men, a significant increase in mortality rates was present in colon (APC 1.8%) as well as in rectosigmoidal junction cancer (APC 3.3%). Rise of 1.7% was present in colon carcinoma in men 35-74 years of age as well as an increase both in men and women 75 years of age and older in the period 1999-2014. Conclusion: Findings of present study revealed increasing mortality rates of colorectal cancer in Serbia. The implementation of nationally organized screening programmes is of paramount importance and should be conducted with higher efficacy in Serbia. Primary prevention measures should mainly focus on maintaining healthy body weight and a balanced diet as well as smoking and alcohol cessation.

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O članku

jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: originalan članak
DOI: 10.5937/ZZ1903033S
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 09.11.2019.

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