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2012, vol. 14, br. 2, str. 77-87
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Postkrizna realokacija faktora rasta
Post-crisis reallocation of growth factors
Ministarstvo finansija, Sektor za nacionalni razvoj, Beograd
Keywords: reallocation of growth factors; macroeconomic imbalances; development gap; post-crisis structural transformations
Sažetak
Globalna recesija je još jednom potvrdila ekonomsku zakonitost da privredni rast nije moguć bez kontinuiranih strukturnih promena. Tranzicioni modeli realokacije faktora rasta pokazali su svu svoju neefikasnost pod naletom recesionih udara. Istraživanje tranzicionog rasta produktivnosti pokazalo je da se produktivnost bazirala, pre svega, na 'unutarsektorskoj dobiti', a ne na tzv. 'realokacionom efektu'. Kompletno područje zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope (JIE) suočeno je sa sistemskim makroekonomskim neravnotežama, koje su, primarno, strukturnog karaktera. S druge strane, komparativna analiza reformskih iskustava pokazuje da tranzicioni rezultati zavise kako od brzine sprovedenih reformi tako i od startne pozicije. Istraživanja su jasno ukazala da je održiv privredni rast bio veći u onim tranzicionim ekonomijama u kojima su reforme bile brže od onih sa strategijom postepenog razvoja. Kriza je u prvi plan istakla značaj industrijskih politika koje su dugo i u teorijskom i u praktičnom smislu bile marginalizovane. Težište postkrizne realokacije faktora rasta, u novom modelu privrednog rasta, neophodno je usmeriti ka strukturnim promenama u produktivnije izvozne sektore prerađivačke industrije.
Abstract
The global recession has once again confirmed the economic principle stating that economic growth is not attainable unless there are continuous structural changes. The transition models of the reallocation of growth factors have demonstrated how inefficient they were when the recession struck. A research into the transitional growth of productivity has shown that productivity has primarily been based on an 'intrasectoral profit', not on the so-called 'reallocation effect'. The entire area of SEE is faced with systemic macroeconomic imbalances primarily of a structural character. On the other hand, a comparative analysis of the reform experiences shows that transitional scores depend both on the speed of the undertaken reforms and the starting position. Studies have clearly demonstrated that sustainable economic growth was higher in those transition economies in which reforms were pursued faster than in those that pursued the strategy of incremental development. The crisis brought to the fore the significance of industrial policies that had been sidelined both in theoretical and practical terms. The focus of the post-crisis reallocation of growth factors in the new model of economic growth should be on structural changes steered towards the productive export sectors of the manufacturing industry.
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