2009, vol. 57, br. 1-2, str. 22-35
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Izazovi industrijskog razvoja Srbije - makroekonomski kontekst
aRepublički zavod za razvoj, Beograd
bEkonomski institut, Beograd, Srbija
Sažetak
Razvoj srpske industrije ne može da odgovori na globalne zahteve savremenog tržišta XXI veka oslanjajući se na obrazovne ideologije iz prošlog veka. Inovativni procesi u nauci, tehnologiji, u svim industrijskim granama teku sve većom brzinom u svetu i zaobilaze region JIE. Tranzicioni početak srpska industrija je dočekala sa strukturom formiranom pre dve decenije. Na početku 2009. godine, posle 8 tranzicionih godina, kratak tranzicioni saldo industrije bi glasio: zaostatak iz 90-tih se sporo stiže, tek je na polovini puta, ali se zato povećava zaostatak u odnosu na EU-15 i EU-10. Najteža situacija je u segmentu zaposlenosti, danas u industriji Srbije je 250.000 radnika manje (35%) nego 1990. godine, pri čemu je učešće industrije u BDV smanjeno suviše brzo. Makroekonomska ravnoteža je u direktnoj zavisnosti od tempa sprovođenja strukturnih reformi u industriji (95% izvoza) i podizanja stepena njene konkurentnosti. U radu je, pored analize strukturne neusklađenosti industrijskog sistema i njenog uticaja na makroekonomsku ravnotežu posebno na duži rok, ukazano na značajnu ulogu države u kreiranju industrijske politike.
Abstract
Built upon education ideologies of the previous century, development of Serbian industry is not able to meet global demands of the modern, 21st century market. Innovative ongoing processes in science, technology, and all industrial branches are global and ever more rapid, and they are circumventing the SEE region. The economic structure of Serbian industry at the beginning of transition was two decades old. At the beginning of 2009, after eight transition years, a short economic transition summary is as follows: the trailing caused by the events of the 1990s is very hard to cope with and we are only half through with this task; on the other hand, we are lagging behind EU-15 and EU-10 more and more. The situation is most dire in the segment of employment - Serbia today employs 250,000 workers (35%) less than in 1990, in spite off all that industrial share in GVA is redused too much fast. Macroeconomic balance is directly related to the rate of implementation of industrial structural reforms (95% of exports) and the upgrading of the level of industrial competitiveness. Apart from the analysis of structural non-adjustment of the industrial system and its impact on the macroeconomic balance, in the long-run in particular, the paper underlines a significant role of the state in the formulation of industrial policy.
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