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2018, vol. 46, br. 3, str. 133-143
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Determinante ekonomskog rasta u pre-kriznom periodu
Determinants of economic growth in the pre-crisis period
aFaculty of Business Economics and Entrepreneurship, Belgrade bNational Bank of Serbia + Faculty of Business Economics and Entrepreneurship, Belgrade cEkonomski institut, Beograd
e-adresa: vladimir.ristanovic@vspep.edu.rs
Projekat: Organizacione i informacione podrške sistemu upravljanja kvalitetom kao ključnim faktorom povećanja konkurentnosti naših preduzeća i njihiovog bržeg izlaska na svetsko i EU tržište (MPNTR - 179001)
Sažetak
U ovom radu analizirane su determinante ekonomskog rasta nakon Drugog svetskog rata do ekonomske krize (1953-2007). U analizi je korišćen dinamički opšti metoda momenta (GMM) panel za određivanje efekata realnih i monetarnih determinanti. Rezultati dobijeni od panela 61 zemlje ukazuju na to da se ekonomski rast razlikuje između perioda, kao i da zavisi od nivoa ekonomskog razvoja. Realne determinante rasta BDP-a (realni nivo BDP po glavi stanovnika, privatna potrošnja, investicije, državna potrošnja, izvoz i uvoz) utiču na ekonomski rast u svim zemljama, dok monetarne determinante (inflacija, kamatna stopa i strane direktne investicije) imaju važniju ulogu u razvijenim zemljama.
Abstract
This paper analyses the determinants of economic growth in the post WWII to the pre-crisis period (1953-2007) using the dynamic generalized methods of moments (GMM) panel approach to determine effects of the real and the monetary determinants. Our results obtained from the panel of 61 countries suggest that economic growth varies between periods, as well as with level of economic development. Real determinants of GDP growth (real per capita GDP level, private consumption, investments, government expenditure, exports, and imports) affect the economic growth in all countries, while the monetary determinants (inflation, interest rate, and foreign direct investment) play more important role in the developed countries.
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