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2008, vol. 56, br. 5-6, str. 155-170
Serbia: From transition to transitionism and back
(naslov ne postoji na srpskom)
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Ekonomski fakultet
Sažetak
(ne postoji na srpskom)
Transition represents a non-evolutionary institutional transformation of former socialist economies into modern market democracies based on private ownership. The process of transition takes place in a new global economy shaped substantively by the actions of developed countries and the emerging markets new greater levels of economic openness (trade liberalization) initiated through WTO with visible decline in home bias and an unprecedented increase in financial (capital) flows. Despite its significant flexibility and adaptability, and huge positive impact on economic growth and reduction of poverty among half of the world population (China, India, Brazil Malaysia, Thailand, etc), in many respects globalization remains a controversial phenomenon. This is especially related to the geopolitical aspect of globalization. The definition of globalization in economics differs from its meaning in geopolitics (including history, anthropology, and sociology). Namely, in economics globalization signifies a complex mechanism of interdependence accelerating the expansion of competitive advantage from local to global markets. Therefore, the key words that depict globalization are liberalization and integration. Despite attempts to show that globalization is a winwin proposition for all countries, regions and social groups, it is evident that in real life globalization creates both winners and losers. Serbia appears to be one of the largest losers of globalization. During the last decade of the past century Serbia got lost in a vain effort to preserve Yugoslavia following the end of the cold war and the breakup of the Former Soviet Union. The geopolitical shock induced by the disintegration of Yugoslavia in 1990 followed by civil wars for heritage of the previous state stimulated the dawning of economic crisis and its inevitable consequences, the downfall of economic activities and the emerging un-tuned institutional infrastructure. The failure of geopolitical repositioning made Serbia's economic transition even more strenuous. In 'yogi economy' the execution of transition, which is also a highly destabilizing process, is demanding since it strikes the margins of social durability. Despite the relatively favorable geopolitical trends stipulated by the political change in the year 2000, transition in Serbia has not yet been completed. In recent times, skepticism concerning economic transition has accelerated by facts such as: the raising of demographic risk, a continuously low level of economic activity, and growth of indebtedness. On the other hand, the conditional EU integration with an open list of geopolitical prerequisites even amongst globalization apologists creates doubts about the purpose of transition and generates suspicion that Serbia is, actually, excommunicated. The political change in the year 2000 did not acquire the adequate epilogue due to the uncompleted process of geopolitical repositioning, negative economic heritage, narrow understanding of transition as financing of macroeconomic stability (exchange rate stability and somewhat price stability) through privatization earnings, as well as inherited pathologies of the previous economic crisis, which widely opened the door to populism in political and economic reforms. This energy converted transition from a shortcut to capitalism, into a labyrinth of transitionalism. Serbia's economy of mid 2008 entered a new stagflation stage, although still far from the pretransitional level of the 1989's economic activities. Indicators of the new transitional stagflation are: growth without development, strengthening of inflationary pressure, capital market fall, transfer of investments into less profitable industries (primarily construction and real estate), and growing indebtedness. This is not a conventional type of stagflation stipulated by hyper-production, yet a transitional stagflation stipulated by hypo-production in an un-tuned system with uncompleted institutional reforms which are best described by a 'strong currency in a weak economy' model. Contrary to skeptics, optimists define this phrase as 'a transitional pause' which corresponds to a politically non-septic phrase for a slowing down rhythm of transition. However, a pause in the continuous process with terminus is oxymoron. A transition with frequent stop-and-go conceals a threat of converting transition in transitionism. An uncompleted transition brings Serbia to a delicate stage of inability to realize its aims, as an impotent, uncompetitive, and un-tuned economy not able to confront new challenges which inflict a deeply receded process of globalization (complexity, liberalization, financial intermediation, demographic risk concentration of wealth, and rising costs of repositioning). In mid 2008, the new government of Serbia accosts three problems: unsolved problems of socialism, unsolved problems of transitionism, and unsolved problems of globalism. Could the epilogue be new premature elections, a proven strategy of buying time, by which the spirit of reformism is sacrificed for the sake of political l'art pour l'art.
Reference
*** (2004) Financial sector regulation: Issues and gaps. Washington: IMF
Balassa, B. (1964) Purchasing power parity doctrine: A reappraisal. Journal of Political Economy, vol. 72
Đuričin, D. (1994) Economies in transition: Privatization and related issues. Gornji Milanovac: Dečje novine
Greenspan, A. (2007) Age of turbulence. New York: Penguin Press
IFC-WB (2007) Easy of doing business
Keynes, J.M. (1936) General theory of employment, interest and money. London: Macmillan
Kolodko, W. (2007) Great post-communist change and uncertain future of the world. u: Estrin S., Kolodko W.and Uvalić M. [ur.] Transition and beyond, New York: Palgrave Macmillan
Popović, D. (2008) Uslovno odobravanje koncentracija u tzv. Novim industrijama. Pravo i privreda, vol. 45, br. 5-8, str. 705-713
Samuelson, P.A. (1964) Theoretical notes on trade problems. Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 46, str. 145-164
Stiglitz, J.E., Charlton, A. (2005) Fair trade for all: How trade can promote development. Oxford: Oxford University Press
Tanzi, V. (2007) Complexity and systemic failure. u: Estrin S., Kolodko W.and Uvalić M. [ur.] Transition and beyond, New York: Palgrave Macmillan
 

O članku

jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: naučni članak
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 25.01.2009.

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