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Bankarstvo
2018, vol. 47, br. 1, str. 14-31
jezik rada: srpski, engleski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
objavljeno: 18/05/2018
doi: 10.5937/bankarstvo1801014L
Creative Commons License 4.0
Makroekonomski efekti monetarne transmisije u Srbiji - SVAR pristup
Univerzitet u Kragujevcu, Ekonomski fakultet

e-adresa: nlojanica@kg.ac.rs

Sažetak

Ocenjivanje delovanja transmisionog mehanizma monetarne politike predstavlja jedno od esencijalnih makroekonomskih pitanja. Osnovni cilj ovog rada je da se odgovarajućom teorijskometodološkom i empirijskom analizom preispitaju efekti monetarne politike na ukupnu ekonomsku aktivnost i cene u privredi Republike Srbije. Makroekonometrijsko modeliranje je realizovano primenom nerekurzivnog SVAR modela, a kao pogodan vremenski okvir odabran je period 2007 M01- 2015 M12. Sprovedenim istraživanjem je ustanovljeno da od monetarnih šokova veoma značajan uticaj na kretanje i fluktuacije u outputu ima novčana masa, kao i da devizni kurs predstavlja najznačajniji kanal monetarne transmisije u Srbiji. Nosioci ekonomske politike treba da imaju u vidu ograničeno dejstvo deviznog kursa u dugom roku. Takođe, monetarne vlasti posebnu pažnju treba da obrate na kanal kamatne stope, kao osnovni instrument monetarne politike, koji ima mali uticaj zbog visokog stepena evroizovanosti nacionalne ekonomije.

Ključne reči

monetarna politika; kanali transmisije; Republika Srbija; SVAR

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