Article metrics

  • citations in SCindeks: 0
  • citations in CrossRef:0
  • citations in Google Scholar:[=>]
  • visits in previous 30 days:11
  • full-text downloads in 30 days:5
article: 1 from 1  
Back back to result list
Ekonomika poljoprivrede
2019, vol. 66, iss. 2, pp. 525-540
article language: English
document type: Review Paper
published on: 16/07/2019
doi: 10.5937/ekoPolj1902525D
Creative Commons License 4.0
Forecasting maize yield in the Republic of Serbia by using Box-Jenkins methodology
University of Belgrade, Faculty of Agriculture



As food supply is one of the most important issues for national security, forecasting agricultural production represents a necessity for every country. Forecasting yields and production volume is a very complex task that requires both application of formal statistical methods and assessment of experts. Considering not only the significant role of maize in the immediate diet and processing industry in the Republic of Serbia, but also its absolute dominance in the structure of sown areas, the analysis of the time series and projections of future maize yield were carried out. Maize yield projections obtained through Box-Jenkins methodology, for 2017 and 2018, are 4.97 t/ha and 7.01 t/ha. Comparing the projected with realized yield in 2017 (for which there is available data), it was noticed that the model's forecast indicated a smaller reduction than actually realized. According to the results of the conducted study, it is clear that although the time series model cannot anticipate precise yield quantities, it can certainly be useful in terms of predicting future tendencies in maize yield oscillations.


maize yield; time series; Box-Jenkins methodology; forecast


Bartlová, J., Badalíková, B., Pospíšilová, L., Pokorný, E., Šarapatka, B. (2015) Water stability of soil aggregates in different systems of tillage. Soil and Water Research, 10(No. 3): 147-154
Biberdžić, M.O., Barać, S.R., Lalević, D.N., Stojiljković, J.V., Knežević, B.P., Beković, D.K. (2018) Influence of soil type and compaction on maize yield / Uticaj tipa i sabijenosti zemljišta na prinos kukuruza. Arab Universities Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 63(4)
Bošnjak, Đ., Pejić, B. (2000) Dependence of corn yield and yield components on the depth of soil wetting by irrigation. Zbornik radova Instituta za ratarstvo i povrtarstvo, br. 34, str. 95-101
de Oliveira, S.C., Pereira, L.M.M., Hanashiro, J.T.S., do Val, P.C. (2012) A study about the performance of time series models for the analysis of agricultural prices. Revista GEPROS, 7(3): 11-11,
Döring, T.F., Reckling, M. (2018) Detecting global trends of cereal yield stability by adjusting the coefficient of variation. European Journal of Agronomy, 99: 30-36
Fang, J., Su, Y. (2019) Effects of Soils and Irrigation Volume on Maize Yield, Irrigation Water Productivity, and Nitrogen Uptake. Scientific Reports, 9(1): 7740-7740
Filipović, V. (2012) Water for irrigation in the service of sustainable development / Voda za navodnjavanje u službi održivog razvoja. Pančevo: PDS Institute ˝Tamiš˝, Current advisor, 1: 4-7
Gava, R., Usher, N.C.M., Frizzone, J.A., Anselmo, J.L., Cotrim, M.F., Kuhn, I.E. (2017) Performance of maize hybrids subject to different application depths under center pivot. Water resources and irrigation management-WRIM, 6(3): 161-168
Glamočlija, Đ., Popović, V., Živanović, L., Filipović, V., Glamočlija, N., Ugrenović, V. (2016) Morphological and productive traits of red kernel maize in variable weather conditions. Selekcija i semenarstvo, vol. 22, br. 1, str. 1-9
Hyndman, R.J., Athanasopoulos, G. (2018) Morphological and productive traits of red kernel maize in variable weather conditions. Australia: OTexts, vol. 22, br. 1, str. 1-9
Jaramaz, M. (2015) Effects of plant density on yield and maize grain quality under irrigated and rainfed condition / Uticaj gustine useva na prinos i kvalitet zrna kukuruza u uslovima navodnjavanja i prirodnog vodnog režima. Belgrade: University of Belgrade-Faculty of Agriculture, Doctoral Dissertation
Kovačić, Z. (1995) The time series analysis / Analiza vremenskih serija. Belgrade: University of Belgrade-Faculty of Economics
Kresović, B., Dragičević, V., Videnović, Ž. (2011) Effects of chernozem water regime and fertilising on maize yields under conditions of direct sowing. Poljoprivredna tehnika, vol. 36, br. 2, str. 33-42
Kresović, B.J., Gajić, B.A., Tapanarova, A.Đ., Pejić, B.S., Tomić, Z.P., Vujović, D.S., Životić, L.B. (2015) Effects of deficit irrigation on grain yield and ear characteristics of maize. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 60, br. 4, str. 419-433
Lopez, J.R., Winter, J.M., Elliott, J., Ruane, A.C., Porter, C., Hoogenboom, G. (2017) Integrating growth stage deficit irrigation into a process based crop model. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 243: 84-92
Maksimović, L., Dragović, S., Jocković, Đ., Stojaković, M. (2001) Yield potentials of NS corn hybrids by irrigation. Zbornik radova Instituta za ratarstvo i povrtarstvo, br. 35, str. 415-424
Mladenović, Z., Nojković, A. (2015) Application of Time Series Analysis / Primenjena analiza vremenskih serija. Belgrade: University of Belgrade-Faculty of Economics, Second Edition
Munćan, M. (2018) Economic effects of irrigation of basic field crops on family farms. Ekonomika poljoprivrede, vol. 65, br. 2, str. 787-800
Munćan, P., Živković, D. (2014) Management of crop production / Menadžment ratarske proizvodnje. Belgrade: University of Belgrade-Faculty of Agriculture
Ogar, T.F., Olaoye, G., Abiola, A.Y., Olakojo, S., Isah, M., Bankole, F., Ishaq, M., Yussuf, A.S. (2017) Evaluation of maize grain yield in drought-prone environment. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 62, br. 1, str. 15-29
Pejić, B., Maksimović, L., Milić, S. (2007) Effect of irrigation on yield of corn hybrids from different maturity groups. Acta biologica Iugoslavica - serija A: Zemljište i biljke, vol. 56, br. 2, str. 59-66
Ralević, N. (1985) Stochastic methods and models of forecasting in agricultural policy / Stohastički metodi i modeli predviđanja u agrarnoj politici. Belgrade: University of Belgrade-Faculty of Economics, Doctoral Dissertation
Selaković, D., Mirić, M., Vidaković, M., Hojka, Z. (2006) Production and trade of seeds of the Maize Research Institute / Proizvodnja i promet semena Instituta za kukuruz 'Zemun Polje'. Plant breeding and seed production, 12(3-4), 97-103
Sodha, D., Saha, G. (2016) Proizvodnja i promet semena Instituta za kukuruz Zemun Polje. in: Recent Trends in Electronics, Information & Communication Technology (RTEICT), IEEE International Conference on, IEEE, IEEE, vol. 12, br. 3-4, str. 97-103
Tabaković, M. (2012) Influence of weather conditions, soil and genotype combination on maize hybrid seed features / Uticaj vremenskih uslova, zemljišta i genotipske kombinacije na osobine hibridnog semena kukuruza. Belgrade: University of Belgrade-Faculty of Agriculture, Doctoral Dissertation
Tokatlidis, I.S. (2013) Adapting maize crop to climate change. Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 33(1), 63-79
Vanuytrecht, E., Raes, D., Willems, P. (2014) Global sensitivity analysis of yield output from the water productivity model. Environmental Modelling & Software, 51: 323-332
Vogel, E., Donat, M.G., Alexander, L.V., Meinshausen, M., Ray, D.K., Karoly, D., Meinshausen, N., Frieler, K. (2019) The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields. Environmental Research Letters, 14(5): 054010-054010
Zhao, J., Xue, Q., Hao, B., Marek, T.H., Jessup, K.E., Xu, W.W., Bean, B.W., Colaizzi, P.D. (2019) Yield determination of maize hybrids under limited irrigation. Journal of Crop Improvement, 33(3): 410-427