Metrika članka

  • citati u SCindeksu: 0
  • citati u CrossRef-u:0
  • citati u Google Scholaru:[=>]
  • posete u poslednjih 30 dana:11
  • preuzimanja u poslednjih 30 dana:6
članak: 8 od 34  
Back povratak na rezultate
2017, vol. 64, br. 3, str. 337-352
jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: preliminarni izveštaj

Creative Commons License 4.0
Globalization of consumer confidence
(naslov ne postoji na srpskom)
Marmara University, Faculty of Economics, Department of Economics, Istanbul, Turkey



(ne postoji na srpskom)
The globalization of world economies and the importance of now casting analysis have been at the core of the recent literature. Nevertheless, these two strands of research are hardly coupled. This study aims to fill this gap through examining the globalization of the consumer confidence index (CCI) by applying conventional and unconventional econometric methods. The US CCI is used as the benchmark in tests of comovement among the CCIs of several developing and developed countries, with the data sets divided into three sub-periods: global liquidity abundance, the Great Recession, and post crisis. The existence and/or degree of globalization of the CCIs vary according to the period, whereas globalization in the form of coherence and similar paths is observed only during the Great Recession and, surprisingly, stronger in developing/emerging countries.

Ključne reči


Acemoglu, D., Scott, A. (1994) Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents' Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?. Economic Journal, 104(422): 1
Akerlof,, George, A., Shiller. Robert, J. (2009) Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism. Princeton: Princeton University Press
Araiza, R.R., González, J.C. (2002) Two methodologies for the leading indicators of the mexican economy and its synchronization with the United States. u: 26th Conference of Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Survey, Taipei
Baghestani, H. (2015) Predicting gasoline prices using Michigan survey data. Energy Economics, 50: 27-32
Berdiev, A.N., Chang, C. (2015) Business cycle synchronization in Asia-Pacific: New evidence from wavelet analysis. Journal of Asian Economics, 37: 20-33
Blanchard, O. (1993) Consumption and the Recession of 1990-1991. American Economic Review, 83(2); 270-274
Breitung, J., Candelon, B. (2006) Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach. Journal of Econometrics, 132(2): 363-378
Carroll, C.D., Fuhrer, J.C., Wilcox, D.W. (1994) Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending?: If so, why?. American Economic Review, 84,(5), 1397-1408
Croux, C., Forni, M., Reichlin, L. (2001) A Measure of Comovement for Economic Variables: Theory and Empirics. Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(2): 232-241
Dees, S., Soares, B.P. (2013) Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: Evidence for the United States and the Euro area. International Economics, 134: 1-14
Dominitz, J., Manski, C.F. (2004) How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2): 51-66
Flood, R.P., Rose, A.K. (2010) Inflation targeting and business cycle synchronization. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(4): 704-727
Granger, C.W.J. (1981) Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification. Journal of Econometrics, 16(1): 121-130
Hutson, M., Joutz, F., Stekler, H. (2014) Interpreting and evaluating CESIfo's World Economic Survey directional forecasts. Economic Modelling, 38: 6-11
Kose, M. A., Otrok, C., Prasad, E. (2012) Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling?. International Economic Review, 53(2): 511-538
Lemmens, A., Croux, C., Dekimpe, M.G. (2007) Consumer confidence in Europe: United in diversity?. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 24(2): 113-127
Matkowski, Z., Próchniak. Mariusz (2004) Real Economic Convergence in the EU Accession Countries. International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 1(3); 5-38
Narayan, P.K. (2005) The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Econometrics, 37, str. 1979-1990
Pesaran, H.M., Yongcheol, S., Smith, R.J. (2001) Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, str. 289-326
Rua, A. (2010) Measuring comovement in the time-frequency space. Journal of Macroeconomics, 32(2): 685-691
Sébastien, W. (2009) The myth of decoupling. Munich Personal RePEc Archive Paper, 20870
Souleles, N. (2001) Consumer Sentiment: Its Rationality and Usefulness in Forecasting Expenditure - Evidence from the Michigan Micro Data. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research
Süssmuth, B., Woitek, U. (2004) Business Cycles and Comovement in Mediterranean Economies: A National and Area-Wide Perspective. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 40(6); 7-27
Sydney, L. (1996) Consumer sentiment and household expenditure: Re-evaluating the forecasting equations. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Research Paper 9636
van Oest, R., Franses, P.H. (2008) Measuring changes in consumer confidence. Journal of Economic Psychology, 29(3): 255-275