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Ekonomika preduzeća
2017, vol. 65, br. 1-2, str. 25-41
jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: pregledni članak
objavljeno: 21/05/2017
doi: 10.5937/ekopre1702025V
Srbija - dve godine fiskalne konsolidacije - rezultati i pitanja srednjoročne održivosti
Ministry of Finance Government of the Republic of Serbia + Univerzitet Singidunum, FEFA - Fakultet za ekonomiju, finansije i administraciju - FEFA, Beograd

Projekat

Unapređenje konkurentnosti Srbije u procesu pristupanja Evropskoj uniji (MPNTR - 47028)

Sažetak

Program fiskalne konsolidacije u Srbiji zasniva se na sveobuhvatnom programu smanjenja rashoda, povećanju budžetskih prihoda i povezanim strukturnim reformama i politikama koje podržavaju ekonomski rast. Tokom prve dve godine programa ostvareni fiskalni rezultati prevazišli su originalne i revidirane ciljeve postavljene u MMF programu. U 2015. stvarni deficit (3.7 posto BDP) prebacuje cilj za 2.2 procentna poena. U 2016 realizacija je dalje unapređena tako da je stvarni deficit (1.36 posto BDP) bio za 2.6 procentnih poena bolji od plana. Ovaj rezultat sadrži strukturno poboljšanje deficita od 4.4 procentnih poena čime se prebacuje cilj programa godinu dana pre roka. U tome, prihodi doprinose 3.5 procentna poena, plate u javnom sektoru 1.0, penzije 0.6 a povećanje rashoda oduzima -0.7. Program je dobro delovao na ekonomski rast. Pad je preokrenut u trećem kvartalu i oživljavanje je krenulo krajem 2014 i početkom 2015 tako da je za celu godinu ostvaren rast od +0.8 posto. Rast se dalje oporavio tokom 2016 (+2.8 posto), očekuje se da bude 3.0 posto u 2017. i da se stabilizuje na oko 3.5 posto nakon toga. Ovakvim performansama Srbija može da postane primer tzv. 'ekspanzivne štednje' koji pokazuje da programi fiskalne konsolidacije napravljeni na zdravim ekonomskim principima i sinhronizovani sa važnim strukturnim reformama i politikama mogu da generišu ekonomski rast. Pažljivo odmeravanje smanjenja rashoda kombinovano naporima za povećanje prihoda mogu da imaju pozitivno dejstvo na rast čak i u najtežim uslovima. Pitanja političke ekonomije programa fiskalne konsolidacije i strukturnih reformi dobijaju na značaju u drugoj godini programa, a posebno nekoliko meseci pred vanredne parlamentarne izbore. U tom kontekstu potrebno je kreativno razmišljati kako da se javnosti objasni da završetak teških i već započetih reformi predstavlja dobitnu kombinaciju za sve, dok gotovo svi gube ukoliko reforme budu zaustavljene ili napuštene.

Ključne reči

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