Geographica Pannonica
kako citirati ovaj članak
podeli ovaj članak


  • citati u SCIndeksu: 0
  • citati u CrossRef-u:[2]
  • citati u Google Scholaru:[]
  • posete u poslednjih 30 dana:4
  • preuzimanja u poslednjih 30 dana:3


članak: 9 od 79  
Back povratak na rezultate
2017, vol. 21, br. 4, str. 212-223
Variability of extreme wet events over Malawi
(naslov ne postoji na srpskom)
aSchool of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, United Kingdom
bDepartment of Climate Change and Meteorological Services, Malawi

e-adresabrigadierlibanda@rocketmail.com, b.libanda2@newcastle.ac.uk
Ključne reči: extreme wet events; frequency; rainfall intensity; Malawi; Africa
(ne postoji na srpskom)
Adverse effects of extreme wet events are well documented by several studies around the world. These effects are exacerbated in developing countries like Malawi that have insufficient risk reduction strategies and capacity to cope with extreme wet weather. Ardent monitoring of the variability of extreme wet events over Malawi is therefore imperative. The use of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) has been recommended by many studies as an effective way of quantifying extreme wet events. In this study, ETCCDI indices were used to examine the number of heavy, very heavy, and extremely heavy rainfall days; daily and five-day maximum rainfall; very wet and extremely wet days; annual wet days and simple daily intensity. The Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) was employed at 5% significance level before any statistical test was done. Trend analysis was done using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall statistical test. All stations were found to be homogeneous apart from Mimosa. Trend results show high temporal and spatial variability with the only significant results being: increase in daily maximum rainfall (Rx1day) over Karonga and Bvumbwe, increase in five-day maximum rainfall (Rx5day) over Bvumbwe. Mzimba and Chileka recorded a significant decrease in very wet days (R95p) while a significant increase was observed over Thyolo. Chileka was the only station which observed a significant trend (decrease) in extremely wet rainfall (R99p). Mzimba was the only station that reported a significant trend (decrease) in annual wet-day rainfall total (PRCPTOT) and Thyolo was the only station that reported a significant trend (increase) in simple daily intensity (SDII). Furthermore, the findings of this study revealed that, during wet years, Malawi is characterised by an anomalous convergence of strong south-easterly and north-easterly winds. This convergence is the main rain bringing mechanism to Malawi.
Alexandersson, H., Moberg, A. (1997) Homogenization of Swedish temperature data. Part i: homogeneity test for linear trends. International Journal of Climatology, 17(1): 25-34
BBC (2015) Malawi floods kill 170 and leave thousands homeless - BBC News. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-30854140, (6.6.2017)
Benin, S., Thurlow, J., Diao, X., Mccool, C., Simtowe, F. (2008) Agricultural growth and investment options for poverty reduction in Malawi. IFPRI Discussion Paper, No. 00794, Available at: http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/13440
Benson, C., Clay, E. (1998) The impact of drought on sub-saharan African economies. Washington, DC: World Bank
Bouwer, L.M. (2011) Have Disaster Losses Increased Due to Anthropogenic Climate Change?. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92(1): 39-46
Bradshaw, C.J. A., Sodhi, N.S., Peh, K.S.-H., Brook, B.W. (2007) Global evidence that deforestation amplifies flood risk and severity in the developing world. Global Change Biology, 13(11): 2379-2395
Brigadier, L., Allan, D., Noel, B., Luo, W., Chilekana, N., Nyasa, L. (2016) Predictor Selection Associated With Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation over Zambia. Asian Journal of Physical and Chemical Sciences, 1(2): 1-9
Brigadier, L., Barbara, N., Bathsheba, M. (2015) Rainfall Variability over Northern Zambia. Journal of Scientific Research and Reports, 6(6): 416-425
Brigadier, L., Ogwang, B.A., Ongoma, V., Ngonga, C., Nyasa, L. (2016) Diagnosis of the 2010 DJF flood over Zambia. Natural Hazards, 81(1): 189-201
Christensen, J. (2007) Climate change 2007: The physical science basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Regional climate projections. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, chapter, 847-940
Davies, R. (2017) Malawi: Floods in Karonga District leave 4 dead, crops destroyed. Flood List, Available at: http://floodlist.com/africa/malawi-floodskaronga-april-2017 (30.05.2017)
González-Rouco, J. F., Jiménez, J. L., Quesada, V., Valero, F. (2001) Quality Control and Homogeneity of Precipitation Data in the Southwest of Europe. Journal of Climate, 14(5): 964-978
Hoell, A., Funk, C., Magadzire, T., Zinke, J., Husak, G. (2015) El Niño-Southern Oscillation diversity and Southern Africa teleconnections during Austral Summer. Climate Dynamics, 45(5-6): 1583-1599
IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: A special report of working groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 996 pp
IPCC (2007) Climate change (2007): Synthesis report: Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 996 pp
IPCC (2001) Climate change: The scientific basis: Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. International Journal of Epidemiology, 32-2, 321-321
IPCC (2013) Climate change: The physical science basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Javari, M. (2016) Trend and Homogeneity Analysis of Precipitation in Iran. Climate, 4(3): 44
Juma, B. (2017) Malawi: Floods in northern region leave several dead and force thousands to evacuate. FloodList, Available at: http://floodlist.com/africa/malawi-floods-mzuzu-karonga-april-2016 (30.05.2017)
Jury, M. R., Gwazantini, M. E. (2002) Climate variability in Malawi, part 2: sensitivity and prediction of lake levels. International Journal of Climatology, 22(11): 1303-1312
Jury, M.R. (2013) Variability in the Tropical Southwest Indian Ocean and Influence on Southern African Climate. International Journal of Marine Science, 3-7, 46-64
Kang, H.M., Fadhilah, Y. (2012) Homogeneity Tests on Daily Rainfall Series in Peninsular Malaysia. International Journal of Contemporary Mathematical Sciences, 7-1, 9 - 22
Karl, P., Thurlow, J., Seventer, D.V. (2010) Droughts and floods in Malawi assessing the economywide effects. IFPRI Discussion Paper, No. 00962 Available at: http://www.ifpri.org/publication/droughts-andfloods-malawi (30.05.2017)
Karl, T.R., Nicholls, N., Ghazi, A. (1999) CLIVAR/GCOS/WMO Workshop on Indices and Indicators for Climate Extremes Workshop Summary. u: Karl, Thomas R.; Nicholls, Neville; Ghazi, Anver [ur.] Weather and Climate Extremes, Dordrecht: Springer Nature, str. 3-7
Kaser, G., Hardy, D.R., Mölg, T., Bradley, R.S., Hyera, T.M. (2004) Modern glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro as evidence of climate change: observations and facts. International Journal of Climatology, 24(3): 329-339
Kazembe, A. (2014) Determining the onset and cessation of seasonal rains in Malawi. University of Nairobi-School of Physical Sciences-Department of Meteorology, Postgraduate thesis submitted to the, Available at: http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/bitstream/handle/11295/95407/Kazembe_Determining%20the%20onset%20and%20cessation%20of%20seasonal%20rains%20in%20Malaw
Kendall, M.G. (1975) Rank correlation methods. London: Griffin, 4th edn
Kumbuyo, C. P., Yasuda, H., Kitamura, Y., Shimizu, K. (2014) Fluctuation of rainfall time series in Malawi: An analysis of selected areas. Geofizika, 31(1): 13-28
Lee, G., Helling, Ch., Dobbs-Dixon, I., Juncher, D. (2015) Modelling the local and global cloud formation on HD 189733b. Astronomy & Astrophysics, 580: A12
Loomis, R. S. (1999) Feeding a World Population of More than Eight Billion People: A Challenge to Science. Crop Science, 39(4): 1250
Majidi, M., Alizadeh, A., Farid, A., Vazifedoust, M. (2015) Estimating Evaporation from Lakes and Reservoirs under Limited Data Condition in a Semi-Arid Region. Water Resources Management, 29(10): 3711-3733
Mann, H.B. (1945) Nonparametric Tests Against Trend. Econometrica, 13(3): 245
Metmalawi (2017) Malawi Meteorological Services, Available at: http://www.metmalawi.com/climate/climate.php (28.05.2017)
Mokrech, M., Kebede, A. S., Nicholls, R. J., Wimmer, F., Feyen, L. (2015) An integrated approach for assessing flood impacts due to future climate and socio-economic conditions and the scope of adaptation in Europe. Climatic Change, 128(3-4): 245-260
ND-GAIN (2017) Malawi: ND-GAIN index. Available at: http://index.gain.org/country/malawi (7.6.2017)
Ngongondo, C., Xu, C., Gottschalk, L., Alemaw, B. (2011) Evaluation of spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall in Malawi: a case of data scarce region. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 106(1-2): 79-93
Ngwira, A.R., Aune, J.B., Thierfelder, C. (2014) DSSAT modelling of conservation agriculture maize response to climate change in Malawi. Soil and Tillage Research, 143: 85-94
Nicholson, S. (2000) The nature of rainfall variability over Africa on time scales of decades to millenia. Global and Planetary Change, 26(1-3): 137-158
Nicholson, S. E., Klotter, D., Chavula, G. (2013) A detailed rainfall climatology for Malawi, Southern Africa. International Journal of Climatology, 34(2): 315-325
Nicholson, S.E., Yin, X. (2002) Mesoscale Patterns of Rainfall, Cloudiness and Evaporation over the Great Lakes of East Africa. u: Beniston, Martin; Odada, Eric O.; Olago, Daniel O. [ur.] The East African Great Lakes: Limnology, Palaeolimnology and Biodiversity, Dordrecht: Springer Nature, str. 93-119
Ogwang, B.A., Guirong, T., Haishan, C. (2012) Diagnosis of September-November drought and the associated circulation anomalies over Uganda. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, 9-17, 11-24
Ongoma, V., Chen, H., Omony, G.W. (2018) Variability of extreme weather events over the equatorial East Africa, a case study of rainfall in Kenya and Uganda. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 131(1-2): 295-308
Sen, P.K. (1968) Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall's Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63(324): 1379-1389
Socrates, N.C. (2006) An analysis of long-term rainfall variability, trends and groundwater availability in the Mulunguzi river catchment area, Zomba mountain, Southern Malawi. Quaternary International, 148(1): 45-50
Vörösmarty, C. J., McIntyre, P. B., Gessner, M. O., Dudgeon, D., Prusevich, A., Green, P., Glidden, S., Bunn, S. E., Sullivan, C. A., Liermann, C. R., Davies, P. M. (2010) Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature, 467(7315): 555-561
Westra, S., Fowler, H. J., Evans, J. P., Alexander, L. V., Berg, P., Johnson, F., Kendon, E. J., Lenderink, G., Roberts, N. M. (2014) Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall. Reviews of Geophysics, 52(3): 522-555
Zaroug, M. A. H., Eltahir, E. A. B., Giorgi, F. (2014) Droughts and floods over the upper catchment of the Blue Nile and their connections to the timing of El Niño and La Niña events. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18(3): 1239-1249

O članku

jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: originalan članak
DOI: 10.5937/gp21-16075
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 05.04.2018.
metod recenzije: dvostruko anoniman
Creative Commons License 4.0

Povezani članci