2014, vol. 3, br. 6, str. 53-63
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Sažetak
Privredna kretanja u nacionalnoj ekonomiji Crne Gore još uvijek nemaju prepoznatljiv iskorak iz zone recesione stagnacije, koja već šestu godinu zaredom, vrti začarani krug urušavanja. Agregatne veličine, koje prema zvaničnim statističkim podacima imaju naizmjeničnu formu čas izvjesnog rasta, čas pada, nagovještavaju mogućnost nadvladavanja pozitivnih tokova privrednog razvoja. Naravno, mogućnost uspostavljanja pozitivnog trenda je isključivo uslovljena novim kapitalnim investicionim ulaganjima, kako u nove proizvodne infrastrukturne objekte, tako i privredne potencijale. Obezbeđenje kapitala za takve investicione zahvate neminovno je finansirati dijelom i iz kreditnih sredstava, pri čemu se mora prevashodno voditi računa o profitabilnosti takvog ulaganja i brzini njihovog efektuiranja. U protivnom, sadašnji roviti oporavak ispoljen u vidu zaustavljanja recesije, mogao bi povući nacionalnu ekonomiju u dublje beznađe ekonomskog oporavka sa naglašenim ekonomskim posledicama bržeg rasta kreditne zaduženosti, sve veće nelikvidnosti, monetarne nestabilnosti, uvozne zavisnosti, spoljnotrgovinskog deficita.
Abstract
Economic recovery of the national economy of Montenegro has still not made a noticeable step forward from a pronounced stagnation zone that has been in a vicious cycle six years in a row. Aggregate sizes, which according to official statistical data have an alternating form of certain growth at one point and a fall or stagnation at the other, suggest the possibility of overcome of overall positive trends of national economy development. A hint of the possibility of establishing a positive trend is entirely dependent on new capital investments in both new production capacities and infrastructure facilities. Providing capital for such investment activities is a very complex process even for far more developed national economies, especially bearing in mind the consequences of global economic crisis and especially because the realisation of those projects is inevitably partly, if not completely, financed by loans. Our current capabilities are such that the level of indebtedness is significantly increasing and approaching to insolvency risk zone, where profitability of such investments and speed of their material effectuation must primarily be taken into account. Otherwise, the current fragile recovery manifested in recession stopping, could pull the national economy into the debt bondage hopelessness with pronounced insolvency economic consequences, increasing illiquidity, monetary and social instability, import dependence, trade deficit.
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