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2014, vol. 61, br. 3, str. 289-316
jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
objavljeno: 10/05/2015
doi: 10.2298/pan1403289v
Aging population and public pensions: Theory and macroeconometric evidence
(naslov ne postoji na srpskom)
aFaculty of Economics, University of Ljubljana, Institute for Economic Research, Slovenia
bDepartment of Economic and Social History, Utrecht University, The Netherlands



(ne postoji na srpskom)
Rapidly aging population in high-income countries has exerted additional pressure on the sustainability of public pension expenditure. We present a theoretical model of public pension expenditure under endogenous human capital, where the latter facilitates a substantial decrease in equilibrium fertility rate alongside the improvement in life expectancy. We demonstrate how higher life expectancy and human capital endowment facilitate a rise of net replacement rate. We then provide and examine an empirical model of old-age expenditure in a panel of 33 countries for the period 1998-2008. Our results indicate that increases in effective retirement age and total fertility rate would reduce age-related expenditure substantially. While higher net replacement rate would alleviate the risk of old-age poverty, further increases would add considerable pressure on the fiscal sustainability of public pensions.

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