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Panoeconomicus
2014, vol. 61, br. 3, str. 289-316
jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
objavljeno: 10/05/2015
doi: 10.2298/pan1403289v
Aging population and public pensions: Theory and macroeconometric evidence
(naslov ne postoji na srpskom)
aFaculty of Economics, University of Ljubljana, Institute for Economic Research, Slovenia
bDepartment of Economic and Social History, Utrecht University, The Netherlands

e-adresa: miroslav.verbic@ef.uni-lj.si, r.spruk@uu.nl

Sažetak

(ne postoji na srpskom)
Rapidly aging population in high-income countries has exerted additional pressure on the sustainability of public pension expenditure. We present a theoretical model of public pension expenditure under endogenous human capital, where the latter facilitates a substantial decrease in equilibrium fertility rate alongside the improvement in life expectancy. We demonstrate how higher life expectancy and human capital endowment facilitate a rise of net replacement rate. We then provide and examine an empirical model of old-age expenditure in a panel of 33 countries for the period 1998-2008. Our results indicate that increases in effective retirement age and total fertility rate would reduce age-related expenditure substantially. While higher net replacement rate would alleviate the risk of old-age poverty, further increases would add considerable pressure on the fiscal sustainability of public pensions.

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