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2010, vol. 58, br. 1-2, str. 1-14
The world after the crisis: Lessons for Serbia's exit strategy from permanent crisis
(naslov ne postoji na srpskom)
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Ekonomski fakultet
Ključne reči: global economic crisis; interlocking fragility; strategic inflection point; moral hazard; risk management; crisis of transitionism; double dip; exit strategy
Sažetak
(ne postoji na srpskom)
In this paper, we develop three ideas. We choose a feasible scenario as a tool, a SWOT-based analysis as a diagnostic concept, and a performance driven wish list grounded in reality as a framework for Serbia's exit strategy from the crisis. Of the dozens of trends we follow, we have identified a few that we believe will be substantially affected by both the recent global economic crisis and the local crisis in Serbia's economy, a crisis of transitionism. In an effort to dissect the global economic crisis and make a strategic audit of Serbia's economic position, we divide our work into five parts. The first addresses the main structural causes of the current global crisis, suggests appropriate measures for calming its devastating waves, and outlines the likely outcomes that will emerge as a consequence. The second examines the current position of the Serbian economy. We present a brief history of underlying adverse trends, and key macroeconomic and vulnerability indicators. The third proposes a few necessary and feasible changes in the economic paradigm, particularly with respect to attitude towards risk. The fourth puts forth leading economic trends and structural changes related to the crisis. Finally, we present a SWOT-based analysis that defines an exit strategy for Serbia's economy from permanent crisis.
Reference
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Bernstein, P. (2009) The moral hazard economy. Harvard Business Review, Jul-Aug, 101-103
Crotty, J. (2009) Structural causes of the global financial crisis: A critical assessment of the 'new financial architecture'. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 33(4): 563
Đuričin, D. (2008) Serbia: From transition to transitionism and back. Ekonomika preduzeća, vol. 56, br. 5-6, str. 155-170
Ferguson, N. (2009) The descent of finance. Harvard Business Review, July-August
Hull, J. (2007) Risk management and financial institutions. Upper Saddle River: Pearson Prentice Hall
IMF (2010) World Economic Outlook. January
Kaplan, R., i dr. (2009) Managing risk in the new world. Harvard Business Review, October, 69-75
Kotler, P., Caslione, J. (2009) Chaotics: The business of managing and marketing in the age of turbulence. New York: Amacom
National Intelligence Council (2008) Global trends 2025: A transformed world. Washington, Nov
OECD-FAO (2010) OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009. December
UN Conference on Trade and Development (2009) World investment report 2009. New York: United Nations
World Economic Forum (2009) The global competitiveness report 2009-2010. Geneva
 

O članku

jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: naučni članak
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 13.04.2010.

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