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2010, vol. 58, br. 1-2, str. 1-14
The world after the crisis: Lessons for Serbia's exit strategy from permanent crisis
(naslov ne postoji na srpskom)
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Ekonomski fakultet
Ključne reči: global economic crisis; interlocking fragility; strategic inflection point; moral hazard; risk management; crisis of transitionism; double dip; exit strategy
(ne postoji na srpskom)
In this paper, we develop three ideas. We choose a feasible scenario as a tool, a SWOT-based analysis as a diagnostic concept, and a performance driven wish list grounded in reality as a framework for Serbia's exit strategy from the crisis. Of the dozens of trends we follow, we have identified a few that we believe will be substantially affected by both the recent global economic crisis and the local crisis in Serbia's economy, a crisis of transitionism. In an effort to dissect the global economic crisis and make a strategic audit of Serbia's economic position, we divide our work into five parts. The first addresses the main structural causes of the current global crisis, suggests appropriate measures for calming its devastating waves, and outlines the likely outcomes that will emerge as a consequence. The second examines the current position of the Serbian economy. We present a brief history of underlying adverse trends, and key macroeconomic and vulnerability indicators. The third proposes a few necessary and feasible changes in the economic paradigm, particularly with respect to attitude towards risk. The fourth puts forth leading economic trends and structural changes related to the crisis. Finally, we present a SWOT-based analysis that defines an exit strategy for Serbia's economy from permanent crisis.
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O članku

jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: naučni članak
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 13.04.2010.

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