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2014, vol. 62, br. 3-4, str. 217-227
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Trgovina i pristup EU - primer Srbije
Trade and EU accession: The case of Serbia
Institut ekonomskih nauka, Beograd, Srbija
Projekat: Evropske integracije i društveno-ekonomske promene privrede Srbije na putu ka EU (MPNTR - 47009)
Izazovi i perspektive strukturnih promena u Srbiji: strateški pravci ekonomskog razvoja i usklađivanja sa zahtevima EU (MPNTR - 179015)
Sažetak
Rad analizira izvoznu konkurentnost Srbije u poređenju sa Evropskom unijom i potencijalne trgovinske efekte scenarija integracije Srbije u EU. Posmatrali smo odabrane makro-ekonomske pokazatelje u cilj u određivanja eksterne konkurentnosti Srbije. Trgovinski efekti posmatranog scenarija su ocenjeni korišćenjem modela parcijalne ravnoteže pod nazivom Global Simulation Model (GSIM). Posmatrani scenario podrazumeva potpunu trgovinsku liberalizaciju između EU i Srbije, i shodno tome, primenu EU carinskih tarifa od strane Srbije prema trgovinskim partnerima. Zaključili smo da Srbija značajno zaostaje u pogledu kvaliteta izvoznih proizvoda i strukturnog razvoja. Simulacija predviđa povećanje izvoza poljoprivrednih proizvoda Srbije u EU za 28% u odnosu na period pre članstva. Predviđeni nivo uvoza poljoprivrednih proizvoda Srbije iz EU veći je za 25%. Analiza otkriva da bi srpski izvoz nepoljoprivrednih proizvoda u EU mogao biti veći za 12,8% u poređenju sa nivoom pre liberalizacije, dok bi uvoz istih proizvoda iz EU porastao za 13,4%. Trgovinska simulacija implicira da bi Srbija izvozila više u pogledu obe vrste proizvoda u EU, dok bi se izvoz u Rusiju i ostatak sveta smanjio. Takođe, model implicira da bi Srbija profitirala od članstva u pogledu indikatora blagostanja.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the export competitiveness of Serbia vis-a-vis European Union and the possible trade effects of Serbian EU accession scenario. We have observed several macroeconomic variables for determining the external position of Serbia. The trade effects of Serbia's EU accession scenario are evaluated using the partial equilibrium Global Simulation Model (GSIM). The evaluated scenario assumes complete trade liberalization between Serbia and EU, hence, the Serbia's adoption of EU tariffs towards the third parties. We find that Serbia is significantly lagging behind in terms of quality of export products and structural development. Regarding the agricultural products, the simulation predicts the increase in Serbian exports to the EU of 28% compared to pre-accession level. The predicted Serbian imports of agricultural products from the EU increased for 25%. The analysis suggests that Serbian non-agricultural exports to the EU will rise by 12.8% compared to initial trade flows, while the Serbian non-agricultural imports from the EU will rise by 13.4%. The trade simulation implies that Serbia will export more of both agricultural and non-agricultural products to the EU, but less to Russia and rest of the world. Moreover, the model implies that Serbia would be better off with joining the EU in terms of welfare indicators.
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