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2013, vol. 47, br. 4, str. 489-514
Stabilni autoritarizam u Arapskom proleću
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Fakultet političkih nauka
Projekat:
Politički identitet Srbije u regionalnom i globalnom kontekstu (MPNTR - 179076)

Sažetak
Masovni protesti protiv nedemokratske vlasti zahvatili su tokom arapskog proleća veći deo Severne Afrike i Bliskog Istoka. Zašto nenasilne ili oružane pobune nisu izbile u svim zemljama regiona? Zašto su neki nedemokratski vladari smenjeni pod pritiskom 'odozdo', a drugi opstali na vlasti? Teorijske rasprave o uticaju strukturnih i institucionalnih činilaca na stabilnost političkih režima i demokratizaciju ukazuju na moguće pravce analize ovih problema. Bogatstvo naftom omogućilo je pojedinim nedemokratskim vladarima da izbegnu široke proteste a drugima da ih uspešno i gotovo bezbolno neutrališu. Veliki prihodi od eksploatacije nafte umanjili su zahteve građana za političkim predstavljanjem, olakšali kupovinu lojalnosti i ojačali represivni aparat, kao i spremnost njegovih pripadnika da upotrebe silu prema protivnicima režima. Pored toga, opstanak arapskih monarhija, kao i alžirskog republikanskog režima, sugeriše da su autoritarni režimi stabilniji od sultanističkih (ličnih) režima. Šira društvena osnova autoritarnih režima, i na njoj zasnovane režimske koalicije, kao i jake političke ustanove, smanjili su regrutni potencijal protesta i obezbedili čvrst odgovor vlasti. Sultanistički režimi, s druge strane, suočili su se s egzistencijalnom pretnjom usled omražene lične vladavine i pokušaja dinastijske sukcesije u republikama, uske društvene osnove režima, velike korupcije i neefikasne vlasti.
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O članku

jezik rada: srpski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
DOI: 10.5937/socpreg1304489V
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 24.03.2014.