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2018, vol. 66, br. 1-2, str. 91-105
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Rešavanje problematičnih kredita u Srbiji - stabilnost kao uslov
Resolution of nonperforming loans in Serbia: Stability as an imperative
National bank of Serbia, Belgrade
Sažetak
Cilj rada je da se sa izvesne vremenske distance izdvoje faktori koji su doveli do rasta problematičnih kredita u Srbiji, dok je fokus rada na merama i aktivnostima koje je Narodna banka Srbije preduzimala pre i nakon usvajanja Strategije za rešavanje problematičnih kredita (u daljem tekstu: Strategija), kao i na rezultatima do kojih je njihova primena dovela. Brojne analize ukazuju na to da su nivo i struktura problematičnih kredita (u daljem tekstu: NPL) proizvod kombinacije makroekonomskih faktora i faktora specifičnih za pojedinačnu banku. Kretanje NPL-a u Srbiji i zemljama u okruženju u pretkriznom periodu je, u velikoj meri, bilo posledica manje konzervativnih modela procene kreditnog rizika u uslovima snažne kreditne ekspanzije. Dodatni faktor bila je i neadekvatna procena vrednosti kolaterala. Tokom krize suočeni smo sa situacijom da se kreditni rizik, preuzet u prethodnom periodu, materijalizovao. Beleži se rast NPL-a, što je proces koji se odvijao paralelno sa pogoršanjem makroekonomskih uslova. Nakon nekoliko pokušaja rešavanja ovog kompleksnog pitanja kroz pojedinačne mere, praksa je potvrdila da trajno rešavanje NPL-a zahteva sistemski pristup i aktivno uključivanje svih relevantnih institucija. Imajući u vidu faktore visokog nivoa NPL-a, bilo je jasno i da nužnu i važnu komponentu uspeha predstavlja i stabilizacija makroekonomskog ambijenta. U Srbiji su, sa obezbeđenjem cenovne stabilnosti i relativne stabilnosti deviznog kursa, uz bolje makroekonomske perspektive, stvoreni uslovi da brojne preduzete mere i aktivnosti, koje su naročito intenzivirane sa usvajanjem Strategije (avgust 2015), rezultiraju ubrzanim rešavanjem pitanja NPL-a. U takvom ambijentu stok NPL-a je prepolovljen od usvajanja Stretegije (pad za 54%), a njihovo učešće u ukupnim kreditima smanjeno je za 12,9 p.p. na 9,5% (prema preliminarnim podacima za decembar 2017, konačan podatak može malo da se razlikuje), čime je palo ispod pretkriznog nivoa.
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to identify the factors that led to the rise in nonperforming loans in Serbia with a certain time distance. The paper focuses on measures and activities undertaken by the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) before and after the adoption of the NPL Resolution Strategy (hereinafter: Strategy), and the results of their implementation. Numerous analyses indicate that the level and structure of nonperforming loans (hereinafter: NPLs) are determined by a combination of macroeconomic and bank-specific factors. The movement of NPLs in Serbia and the surrounding countries in the pre-crisis period was, to a large extent, the consequence of less conservative credit risk assessment models in an environment of robust credit expansion. An additional factor was inadequate collateral valuation. During the crisis, we were faced with a situation where the credit risk, taken in the previous period, materialised. NPLs grew in parallel with the deterioration of macroeconomic conditions. After several attempts to resolve this complex issue by using individual measures, it was confirmed in practice that a permanent resolution of NPLs requires a systemic approach and active involvement of all relevant institutions. Taking into account the factors behind the high level of NPLs, it was clear that a necessary and important component of success was the stabilisation of macroeconomic environment. As price stability and relative stability of the exchange rate were ensured in Serbia and macroeconomic outlook improved, conditions were created conducive to the accelerated resolution of NPLs through numerous measures and activities, which particularly intensified after the adoption of the Strategy (August 2015). In the environment described above, the NPL stock halved since the Strategy adoption (down by 54%), reducing the share of NPLs in total loans by 12.9 pp to 9.5% (preliminary December 2017 data, final data could be slightly different), thus falling below the pre-crisis level.
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