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Ekonomika
2012, vol. 58, br. 4, str. 37-54
jezik rada: srpski
vrsta rada: pregledni članak
Izbor metoda ekonomskog predviđanja - problemi i perspektive
aUniverzitet u Kragujevcu, Ekonomski fakultet
bVisoka škola modernog biznisa, Beograd

e-adresa: mimovicp@kg.ac.rs

Sažetak

Ekonomsko predviđanje karakteriše izrazita kompleksnost i neizvesnost u pogledu krajnjih ishoda. Iznenadne promene u poslovnom okruženju, mogu dovesti do značajnih ako ne i radikalnih odstupanja stvarnih rezultata od projektovanih. Osim toga, konvencionalni pristupi predviđanju su fokusirani, uglavnom, na razvoj i testiranje statističkih tehnika. U praksi, međutim, ljudsko rezonovanje i prosuđivanje, imaju primarnu ulogu. Čak i kada se koriste statistički metodi, rezultati se često prilagođavaju prema proceni eksperata. U radu je prezentiran sveobuhvatan pregled metoda ekonomskog predviđanja, uz osvrt na njihove ključne karakteristike, trenutno stanje u teoriji i praksi, problem izbora metoda predviđanja kao i smernice za dalji razvoj ekonomskog predviđanja.

Ključne reči

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