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Fizička kultura
2000, vol. 54, iss. 1-4, pp. 69-79
article language: Serbian
document type: unclassified
published on: 02/06/2007
The analysis of the results of Olympic medal winners (1896 - 1996) in 1500m crawl with the prediction of results until year 2000
aFakultet za fizičko vaspitanje i sportsku nauku, Univerzitet u Atini, Grčka
bUniversity of Belgrade, Faculty of Sports and Physical Education


The aim of this research was to analyze the dynamics of the development of results achieved by medal winners at the Olympic Games for the discipline of swimming 1500m crawl, and to predict the most probable results which the Olympic winners should achieve in this discipline at the Olympic games until year 2000. The research of the dynamics of the development of results for the period from 1896 to 1996 was conducted by analyzing the functions which were used for interpolation and approximation of the achieved results. The analysis of functions consisted of establishing the function extreme and inflection points. Interpolation of results was done by spline method (by Akima), while the approximation of results was done by the 8th degree polynomial in the least square method (orthogonal Forsyth polynomial method). The obtained results were discussed from the aspect of identification of relevant factors influencing the changes in the dynamics of development of results such as the influence of wars, changes in the competition rules, changes in the number of countries participating in the Olympic Games, the development of the technology of training, appearance of exceptional individuals etc. Prediction of the most probable results of Olympic games 2000 medal winners was done by approximation of the chosen segment of results by exponential function. The most probable results of winners for the 1500m crawl should be 14:30:34, 14:38:72, 14:40:35.



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