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2009, vol. 51, br. 4, str. 337-364
Keynesova teorija konvencionalnog odlučivanja na finansijskim tržištima
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Filozofski fakultet
Projekat:
Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 149005

Ključne reči: rizik; fundamentalna neizvesnost; investicije; konvencije; intersubjektivnost; nestabilnost
Sažetak
Pitanje koje se postavlja u ovom radu je da li finansijska tržišta funkcionišu na način koji je opisan danas i dalje dominantnom modernom teorijom efikasnih finansijskih tržišta. Stojimo na stanovištu da moderna teorija efikasnih tržišta svoje zaključke bazira na nerealnim pretpostavkama da je budućnost predvidiva i ergodična. Pošto pretpostavke modela impliciraju njegove zaključke, nerealne pretpostavke impliciraju netačne i neprimenljive teorijske modele. Za razliku od neoklasične teorije, Keynes je insistirao na tome da je budućnost fundamentalno neizvesna i neergodična. U tim okolnostima, kada ne postoji osnova za kalkulaciju budućeg toka stvari, jedino što je racionalno za agente na finansijskim tržištima je da svoje odluke donose na bazi društveno prihvatljivih konvencija. Dosledno, pošto su tako formirana očekivanja nestabilna, i pošto očekivanja na bazi kojih se donose odluke kreiraju budućnost, moguće je dokazati da je finansijskim tržištima inherentna nestabilnost.
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O članku

jezik rada: srpski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
DOI: 10.2298/SOC0904337R
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 12.01.2010.