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2020, vol. 68, br. 7-8, str. 484-499
Povezanost nezaposlenosti i privrednog rasta u Srbiji - da li važi Okunov zakon?
Univerzitet u Kragujevcu, Ekonomski fakultet, Katedra za opštu ekonomiju i privredni razvoj
Sažetak
Polazeći od empirijski fundiranog postulata da ekonomski rast, preko povećanja tražnje za radom i zapošljavanja, dovodi do smanjenja stope nezaposlenosti, u ovoj studiji se ispituje odnos između rasta realnog BDP-a i stope nezaposlenosti u Republici Srbiji. Opredeljenje za navedenu analizu motivisano je činjenicom da je stopa nezaposlenosti u Srbiji značajno smanjena tokom poslednje decenije (naročito nakon 2014. godine) uprkos relativno skromnim stopama privrednog rasta. Navedene tendencije ukazuju na mogućnost nelinearne (asimetrične) veze između ovih veličina, što ima važne implikacije za dizajniranje efikasnije ekonomske politike i politike zapošljavanja. Primenom linearnog i nelinearnog autoregresivnog modela raspoređenih docnji (ARDL i NARDL) na kvartalne podatke u periodu od 2008. do 2019. godine pokazano je da je veza između privrednog rasta i stope nezaposlenosti negativna, kao što predviđa Okunov zakon, ali i da postoji izražena asimetrija u ovom odnosu. Naime, povećanje realnog autputa za 1% dovodi do smanjenja stope nezaposlenosti za 4,74%, dok smanjenje autputa u istom procentu povećava stopu nezaposlenosti za svega 1,52%. Dodatna analiza, koja stavlja u odnos komponente BDP-a prema rashodnom i proizvodnom pristupu i stopu nezaposlenosti, ukazuje da najveći efekat na asimetriju Okunovog zakona u privredi Srbije ima domaća tražnja, primarno lična i javna potrošnja usmerena na proizvode radno intenzivnih delatnosti, poput sektora usluga, poljoprivrede i industrije.
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O članku

jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
DOI: 10.5937/EKOPRE2008484M
primljen: 16.07.2020.
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 20.02.2021.