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2017, vol. 46, br. 2, str. 140-157
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Deset godina ciljanja inflacije u Srbiji
Ten years of inflation targeting in Serbia
Sažetak
Monetarna strategija ciljanja inflacije u Srbiji nezvanično je uvedena septembra 2006. godine. Narodna banka Srbije se susrela sa brojnim izazovima koji su karakteristični za tranzicione zemlje koje primenjuju istu strategiju. Na samom početku inflacionog targetiranja inflacija je svedena na jednocifren broj, što odlikuje i većinu ostalih zemalja. Međutim, volatilnost inflacije je tokom primene strategije izuzetno visoka, uglavnom zbog promena u ceni prerađene i neprerađene hrane. Pored toga, za zemlju sa visokom stepenom evroizacije, kao što je i Srbija, devizni kurs ima veoma važnu ulogu u kretanju inflacije. Kontrolisanje kretanja deviznog kursa kako bi se održala stabilnost inflacije u suprotnosti je sa pretpostavkama inflacionog targetiranja. Ipak, može sa zaključiti da je i pored svih prepreka sa kojima se suočava NBS, inflaciono targetiranje najoptimalniji izbor monetarne strategije.
Abstract
Monetary strategy of inflation targeting in Serbia was unofficially introduced in September 2006. The National Bank of Serbia has faced the numerous challenges that are typical for transition countries which apply the same strategy. At the start of inflation targeting, inflation was reduced to a single-digit number, which characterises most other countries. However, the volatility of inflation during the implementation of the strategy has been extremely high, mainly caused by the changes of processed and unprocessed food prices. Moreover, for a country with a high degree of euroisation, such as Serbia, the exchange rate plays an important role in the movement of inflation. Controlling the trends of the exchange rate in order to maintain the stability of inflation is contrary to the assumptions of inflation targeting. However, it can be concluded that despite all the obstacles faced by the NBS, inflation targeting is the optimal choice of a monetary strategy.
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