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2020, vol. 22, br. 2, str. 149-160
Očekivane tendencije BDP-a tri vodeće globalne ekonomije tokom 2020-ih - da li je na pomolu rebalans (geo)ekonomske moći?
aInstitut za evropske studije, Beograd
bInstitut društvenih nauka, Beograd

e-adresagorandrnikolic@gmail.com
Projekat:
Ministarstvo prosvete, nauke i tehnološkog razvoja Republike Srbije (institucija: Institut za evropske studije, Beograd) (MPNTR - 451-03-68/2020-14/200008)
Ministarstvo prosvete, nauke i tehnološkog razvoja Republike Srbije (institucija: Institut društvenih nauka, Beograd) (MPNTR - 451-03-68/2020-14/200004)

Sažetak
Međunarodni monetarni fond (International Monetary Fund - IMF) predviđa postepeno usporavanje, inače snažnog, rasta kineske ekonomije u prvoj polovini 2020-ih, te anemičan rast zapadnih ekonomija: SAD i posebno EU27. Imajući u vidu praktičnu (i simboličku) važnost dostizanja statusa ekonomije "broj jedan", osnovni cilj rada je procenjivanje tendencija BDP-a (i BDP-a PPP) posmatranih ekonomija tokom naredne decenije. Glavni doprinos i nalaz ovog rada je procena budućih kretanja BDP-a za SAD, Kinu i EU27 u periodu 2025-30, na osnovu prethodnih trendova i projekcija IMF-a za 2020-24. Kineska privreda će postati globalno vodeća 2029-2030. Na osnovu izvršenih kalkulacija dokazana je osnovna istraživačka hipoteza, imajući u vidu da promene u globalnoj ekonomskoj poziciji impliciraju značajne geopolitičke posledice. Naime, dok će SAD, skoro izvesno, tokom 2020-ih ostati vodeća globalna sila, a EU nastaviti da bude fokusirana na sebe, ekonomski rast Kine će imati rastuće globalne konsenkvence, podstičući kretanje ka disperziji autoriteta. Taj zaključak je u skladu sa tvrdnjama većine relevantnih autora, koji potenciraju sve limitiraniju mogućnost SAD za unilateralne akcije.
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O članku

jezik rada: srpski, engleski
vrsta rada: pregledni članak
DOI: 10.5937/ekonhor2002159N
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 02.09.2020.
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