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2021, vol. 23, br. 2, str. 189-202
Asimetrija u ceni nafte, korišćenje energije i tranzicija ekonomskog rasta u Nigeriji
aUniversity of Ibadan, Centre for Petroleum, Energy Economics and Law, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria
bOlabisi Onabanjo University, Department of Economics, Ago Iwoye, Ogun State, Nigeria
cEmerald Energy Institute, Energy Economics, Management and Policy, Uniport, Nigeria

e-adresacaleb.soyemi@oouagoiwoye.edu.ng
Ključne reči: cena nafte; indeks potrošačkih cena; korišćenje energije; ekonomski rast
Sažetak
Ova studija se bavi izučavanjem efekta strukturnih poremećaja u kontekstu Nigerije. Na osnovu nalaza studije, linearni test granica autoregresivnih distribuiranih docnji (ARDL test) upućuje na zaključak da ne postoji realna mogućnost za uspostavljanje dugoročnog odnosa kointegracije. Međutim, kada studija uzme u obzir asimetriju i period strukturnog prekida, test granica nelinearnih autoregresivnih distributivnih docnji (NARDL test) otkriva da, u navedenom periodu, ne postoji dugoročna kointegraciona veza između promenljivih u Nigeriji. Rezultati do kojih se došlo primenom NARDL testa ukazuju na činjenicu da i pozitivne i negativne promene u ceni nafte i korišćenju energije kratkoročno negativno značajno utiču na ekonomski rast u Nigeriji. S druge strane, indeks potrošačkih cena (CPI) pozitivno i značajno kratkoročno utiče na ekonomski rast. Rezultat dobijen primenom modela korekcije greške (ECM model) ukazuje na to da nezavisne promenljive mogu dugoročno da koriguju oko 94% kratkoročnog odstupanja ekonomskog rasta od ravnotežnog stanja. U studiji se zaključuje da, bez obzira na promene u ceni Bonny Light sirove nafte, ona i dalje podjednako utiče na ekonomski rast Nigerije.
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O članku

jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: pregledni članak
DOI: 10.5937/ekonhor2102189L
primljen: 30.11.2020.
prihvaćen: 12.07.2021.
objavljen onlajn: 02.08.2021.
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 07.08.2021.
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