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2016, vol. 45, br. 1, str. 92-111
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Ocena transmisionog mehanizma monetarne politike u zemljama novim članicama Evropske unije
Assessment of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the new EU member states
Sažetak
Kako bi se transmisioni mehanizam potpuno razumeo i analizirao, neophodno je sagledati sve faktore koji uslovljavaju njegovu efikasnost kao celinu i efikasnost pojedinih kanala. U fokusu rada su zemlje koje se uspešno prošle period tranzicije i koje imaju iskustvo sa primenom različitih režima monetarne politike. Kroz proces evolucije monetarne politike razvili su se i instrumenti kojima centralna banka deluje na realni sektor putem transmisionog mehanizma. Empirijskom analizom pomoću ekonometrijskih alata ispituje se efikasnost kanala transmisionog mehanizma, odnosno jačina njihovog delovanja u režimu ciljanja inflacije. Kako bi se došlo do zaključka u kom pravcu je neophodno razvijati strukturu realnog i finansijskog sektora, u cilju boljeg delovanja instrumenata monetarne politike, teorijski se analiziraju karakteristike monetarne politike razvijenih ekonomija, kao i strukturne karakteristike privrede.
Abstract
In order to completely understand and analyse the transmission mechanism, it is necessary to observe all factors conditioning its overall efficiency as well as the efficiency of individual transmission channels. This paper focuses on countries that have successfully passed the transition period and have experience with implementing different monetary policy regimes. The evolution of monetary policy resulted in the development of instruments through which central banks influence the real sector activity by means of a transmission mechanism. The empirical analysis based on econometric tools investigates the efficiency of transmission mechanism channels, or more precisely, their significance in the monetary targeting regime. With a view to reaching the conclusion about the direction in which it is necessary to develop the structure of the real and financial sector, aimed at a better functioning of monetary policy instruments, the paper features a theoretical analysis of the characteristics of the monetary policy in the developed economies, as well as the structural characteristics of these economies.
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