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2015, vol. 44, br. 3, str. 12-35
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Monetarna politika u zemljama BRICS - strateška osnova i efektivnost
Monetary policy in the BRICS: Strategic basis and effectiveness
Univerzitet 'Džemal Bijedić', Ekonomski fakultet, Mostar, Federacija BiH
e-adresa: dzaklan@bih.net.ba
Sažetak
Cilj ovog rada je specificirati monetarnu politiku u zemljama BRICS (Brazil, Rusija, Indija, Kina i Južna Afrika) sa aspekta njene strateške osnove i efektivnosti. Takva analiza sprovedena po pojedinačnim zemljama ove grupacije je pokazala da one u cjelini konvergiraju razvijenim zemljama svojom politikom novca, napuštajući tako njenu akomodativnu orijentaciju i zasnivanje na targetiranju deviznog kursa u korist direktnog targetiranja inflacije kao strateške osnove. Brazil i Južna Afrika već koriste takvo targetiranje, dok Rusija namjerava to učiniti u 2015. godini. Kina i Indija preduzimaju jasne korake u istom pravcu. Efektivnost monetarne politike u Brazilu i Južnoj Africi je bila zadovoljavajuća, rezultirajući nešto višom inflacijom od one smatrane ravnotežnom u razvijenim zemljama. Takva inflacija karakteriše i ostale zemlje BRICS, od kojih Kina primjenjuje strategiju targetiranja monetarnih agregata, pri čemu uglavnom premašujući targetne vrijednosti, dok Rusija i Indija koriste akomodativnu politiku novca, no dominantno bez njenog međutargeta.
Abstract
This paper aims to specify the monetary policy in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) from the perspective of its strategic basis and effectiveness. Such analysis, performed on individual countries from this group, has indicated that, on the whole, they converge with the developed countries in terms of their monetary policy, thereby renouncing its accommodative orientation and exchange rate targeting in favour of direct inflation targeting as its strategic basis. Brazil and South Africa already use such targeting, whereas Russia intends to do so in 2015. China and India have been undertaking concrete steps in the same direction. The effectiveness of monetary policy in Brazil and South Africa has been satisfactory, having resulted in a somewhat higher inflation than the one considered to be balanced in developed countries. Such inflation also characterizes other BRICS, among which China implements the strategy of monetary aggregates targeting, with target values mostly being exceeded, whereas Russia and India resort to accommodative monetary policy, yet dominantly without its inter-target.
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