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2014, vol. 43, br. 6, str. 44-57
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Izvođenje prognoze inflacije iz cena državnih obveznica
Deriving inflation forecasts from government bond prices
Sažetak
U finansijskom istraživanju i praksi, široko je prihvaćeno da se nominalne kamatne stope, izvedene iz cena raznih finansijskih proizvoda različitih ročnosti sastoje od odgovarajućih realnih kamatnih stopa i inflacije. Mada se srpovodi ekstenzivno istraživanje o odnosima između ove tri varijable, procena njihovih nivoa i dalje je u velikoj meri zasnovana na pregledima industrije i tržišnim podacima. Pošto ta informacija samo ukazuje na tekuća očekivanja u pogledu kretanja kamatne stope i inflacije tokom vremena, određena upozorenja treba imati u vidu kada se tumače te veličine. U SAD i Velikoj Britaniji, gde su tržišta državnih obveznica najveća i najaktivnija, komparativna analiza između konvencionalnih državnih obveznica i obveznica čiji je prinos vezan za inflaciju pruža meru očekivanja inflacije. Međutim pošto takve analize implicitno uzimaju da je investiranje u državne obveznice praktično bez rizika, pitanje je da li su izvedene procene od bilo kakve vrednosti u tekućim ekonomskim uslovima. Dalje, ovaj pristup ne može da se generalizuje na druge zemlje, gde je broj proizvoda kojima se trguje iz kojih se može utvrditi bilo koji odnos između kamatnih stopa i inflacije ograničen i gde važe drugačiji ekonomski odnosi. Ovaj rad ima za cilj da prikaže pregled metodologija koje se koriste za prognoziranje stopa inflacije iz cena državnih obveznica, usmeravajući pažnju na ključne pretpostavke i ograničenja tih pristupa. Cilj je utvrditi njihovu preciznost i time njihovu vrednost kod utvrđivanja realnih prinosa raznih proizvoda vezanih za kamatne stope.
Abstract
In financial research and practice, it is widely accepted that nominal interest rates derived from the prices of various financial products of different maturities comprise of corresponding real interest rates and inflation. While extensive research has been conducted on the relationship between these three variables, estimation of their levels is still largely based on the industry surveys and market data. As this information only indicates the current expectations of interest rate and inflation movements over time, a number of caveats should be noted when interpreting such measures. In the US and the UK, where the government bond markets are the largest and most active, a comparative analysis between conventional government bonds and those whose yield is linked to inflation provides a measure of inflation expectations. However, as such analyses implicitly assume that investment in government bonds is virtually risk free, it is questionable whether the derived estimates are of any value in current economic conditions. Moreover, this approach cannot be generalized to other countries, where number of traded products from which any relationship between interest rates and inflation can be determined is limited and different economic conditions prevail. Thus, this paper aims to present an overview of the methodologies used to forecast inflation rates from government bond prices, drawing attention to the key assumptions and limitations of these approaches. The goal is to ascertain their accuracy, and thus their value in determining the real yields of various interest rate-linked products.
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