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2021, vol. 23, br. 1, str. 19-32
Uticaj nepostojanosti kamatnih stopa i kursa na učinak neformalnog sektora u Nigeriji - primer malih i srednjih preduzeća
Delta State University, Faculty of the Social Sciences, Department of Business Administration, Abraka, Delta State, Nigeria

e-adresahenryosas@yahoo.com
Ključne reči: kointegracija; režimi kursa; devize; makroekonomske politike; monetarizam; program strukturnog usaglašavanja
Sažetak
U ovom radu se istražuje zajednički uticaj nepostojanosti kamatnih stopa i kursa na učinak neformalnog sektora u Nigeriji, s fokusom na mala i srednja preduzeća. Godišnji podaci vremenskih serija kursa i kamatnih stopa, za period 1981-2018, pribavljeni su iz centara u kojima se vrši izračunavanje nepostojanosti kursa i kamatnih stopa. Podaci su analizirani pomoću deskriptivne statistike, korelacije, testa jediničnog korena, testa graničnih vrednosti autoregresivnih distribuiranih docnji (ARDL) za kointegraciju i ARCH regresionog modela. Rezultat testa graničnih vrednosti autoregresivnih distribuiranih docnji potvrdio je postojanje dugoročne veze između nepostojanosti kamatnih stopa i kursa, s jedne, i učinka malih i srednjih preduzeća, s druge strane, što sugeriše da se sve relevantne varijable dugoročno kreću u istom smeru. Štaviše, ARCH regresioni model je pokazao da nepostojanost kamatnih stopa i kursa pozitivno utiče na učinak malih i srednjih preduzeća. Međutim, samo je nepostojanost kursa bila značajna. Stoga bi donosioci politika trebalo da slede režime kamatnih stopa i kursa koji će podstaći velika ulaganja u mala i srednja preduzeća, što bi zauzvrat povećalo učinak malih i srednjih preduzeća. Monetarne vlasti bi, takođe, trebalo da sprovode politike koje imaju za cilj smanjenje neprekidne nepostojanosti kursa i kamatnih stopa kako bi se mala i srednja preduzeća zaštitila od eksternih poremećaja trendova kursa i kamatnih stopa.
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O članku

jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
DOI: 10.5937/ekonhor2101019O
primljen: 09.12.2020.
prihvaćen: 15.04.2021.
objavljen onlajn: 23.04.2021.
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 29.04.2021.
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