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2021, vol. 23, br. 1, str. 33-53
Adekvatnost deviznih rezervi Republike Srbije i faktori koji utiču na njihovo formiranje
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Ekonomski fakultet

e-adresaradovan.kovacevic@ekof.bg.ac.rs
Projekat:
Rad je rezultat istraživanja finansiranih od strane Ministarstva prosvete, nauke i tehnološkog razvoja Republike Srbije.

Sažetak
U radu se analizira adekvatnost nivoa deviznih rezervi Republike Srbije (RS) i faktori koji utiču na njihovo akumuliranje, uz primenu ekonometrijskog modela. U analizu su uključene relevantne promenjive, kao što su bruto domaći proizvod (BDP), realni efektivni devizni kurs (REDK) i monetarni agregat M2 /BDP. Pomoću testova jediničnog korena, utvrđeno je da su varijable integrisane reda I(1). Test kointegracije je otkrio postojanje jedne kointegracione jednačine. Regresioni model je ocenjen korišćenjem kvartalnih podataka, za period od prvog kvartala 2002, zaključno sa trećim kvartalom 2020. Ocenjeni koeficijenti kointegracionih parametara pokazuju da naglašen uticaj na akumuliranje deviznih rezervi ima privredna aktivnost aproksimirana pomoću BDP-a, a zatim, pritisak na apresijaciju dinara (aproksimiran pomoću indeksa REDK) i rast novčane mase (ocenjen preko monetarnog agregata M2 /BDP). U analizi se, sem konvencionalnih, ukazuje i na specifične faktore i njihov uticaj na formiranje deviznih rezervi RS. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da su devizne rezerve RS veće od nivoa koji preporučuju standardni kriterijumi optimalnosti. Nalazi u radu, takođe, sugerišu da je potrebno uzeti u obzir dividende, koje ostvaruju strani investitori u RS, kao i određene segmente portfolio investicija, prilikom utvrđivanja specifičnog pokazatelja adekvatnog nivoa deviznih rezervi.
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O članku

jezik rada: srpski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
DOI: 10.5937/ekonhor2101033K
primljen: 18.01.2021.
prihvaćen: 15.04.2021.
objavljen onlajn: 23.04.2021.
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 29.04.2021.
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