Metrika

  • citati u SCIndeksu: 0
  • citati u CrossRef-u:0
  • citati u Google Scholaru:[]
  • posete u poslednjih 30 dana:32
  • preuzimanja u poslednjih 30 dana:20

Sadržaj

članak: 6 od 13  
Back povratak na rezultate
2018, vol. 20, br. 1, str. 45-59
Predrasude u procesu odlučivanja i mogućnosti njihovog prevazilaženja
Univerzitet u Kragujevcu, Ekonomski fakultet

e-adresajnikolic@kg.ac.rs
Sažetak
Polazeći od normativnog pristupa, odluka kao ishod procesa odlučivanja treba da predstavlja racionalan izbor od strane potpuno informisanog donosioca odluka. Sa razvojem biheviorističke perspektive u analizi procesa odlučivanja, uočene su određene greške u ponašanju donosilaca odluka, koje nastaju kao posledica njihovih ograničenih kognitivnih kapaciteta i informacione asimetrije. Primena heuristika kao pojednostavljenih mentalnih strategija, kao i određene deformacije u razmišljanju i percepciji donosilaca odluka, dovode do različitih predrasuda koje utiču na njihove stavove i pristup procesu rešavanja problema. Svrha istraživanja ogleda se u identifikovanju predrasuda koje se najčešće pojavljuju u procesu odlučivanja, kao i njihovih uzroka i posledica. Primenjena je kvalitativna metodologija istraživanja i relevantni metodi analize i sinteze, dedukcija i indukcija. Na osnovu analize sprovedenih empirijskih studija, definisane su preporuke za prevazilaženje identifikovanih predrasuda, što predstavlja glavni rezultat istraživanja. Izvedeni zaključci o mogućnostima prevazilaženja predrasuda mogu pomoći donosiocima odluka da unaprede proces odlučivanja u realnim situacijama.
Reference
Babić, V. (1995) Strategijsko odlučivanje. Beograd: Institut za ekonomiku i finansije
Božović, B., Gvozdenović, V. (2009) Nerealistični optimizam i donošenje odluka. Psihologija, vol. 42, br. 4, str. 567-584
Busenitz, L.W., Barney, J.B. (1997) Differences between entrepreneurs and managers in large organizations: Biases and heuristics in strategic decision-making. Journal of Business Venturing, 12(1): 9-30
Campitelli, G., Gobet, F. (2010) Herbert Simon's decision-making approach: Investigation of cognitive processes in experts. Review of General Psychology, 14(4): 354-364
Chi, T., Fan, D. (1997) Cognitive Limitations and Investment 'Myopia'. Decision Sciences, 28(1): 27-57
Chira, I., Adams, M., Thornton, B. (2011) Behavioral Bias Within The Decision Making Process. Journal of Business & Economics Research (JBER), 6(8): 11-20
de Neys, W. (2010) Heuristic bias, conflict, and rationality in decision-making. u: Glatzeder B.M., Goel V., Müller A. [ur.] Towards a Theory of Thinking, Berlin: Springer, On Thinking, pp. 22-33, doi:10.1007/978-3-642-03129-8_2
Fiedler, K., von Sydow, M. (2015) Heuristics and biases: Beyond Tversky and Kahneman's (1974) judgment under uncertainty. u: Eysenck M., Groome D. [ur.] Revisiting the Classical Studies, Sage Publications, Retrieved March 9, 2018, from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280981235_Heuristics_and_Biases_Beyond_Tversky_and_Kahneman%27s_1974_Judgment_under_Uncertainty
Forbes, D.P. (2005) Are some entrepreneurs more overconfident than others?. Journal of Business Venturing, 20(5): 623-640
Golden, J., Milewicz, J., Herbig, P. (1994) Forecasting: Trials and Tribulations. Management Decision, 32(1): 33-36
Hammond, J., Keeney, R., Raiffa, H. (2006) The hidden traps in decision making. Harvard Business Review, 84(1): 118-127
Harrison, E. F. (1996) A process perspective on strategic decision making. Management Decision, 34(1): 46-53
Henman, D.L. (2008) How to avoid the hidden traps of decision making. Retrieved March 9, 2018, from http://www.henmanperformancegroup.com/articles/Avoid-Hidden-Traps.pdf
Hodgkinson, G.P., Maule, A. J., Bown, N.J., Pearman, A.D., Glaister, K.W. (2002) Further reflections on the elimination of framing bias in strategic decision making. Strategic Management Journal, 23(11): 1069-1076
Howard, A.R., Abbas, E.A. (2016) Foundation of Decision Analysis. England: Pearson Education Limited
Huber, G. (1980) Managerial Decision Making. London: Longman Higher Education
Jamieson, K., Hyland, P. (2006) Good Intuition or Fear and Uncertainty: The Effects of Bias on Information Systems Selection Decisions. Informing Science: The International Journal of an Emerging Transdiscipline, 9: 049-069
Kahneman, D., Tversky, A. (1979) Prospect theory: An analysis of decisions under risk. Econometrica, 47, 2, 263-291
Korte, R.F. (2003) Biases in Decision Making and Implications for Human Resource Development. Advances in Developing Human Resources, 5(4): 440-457
Levinthal, D.A. (2011) A behavioral approach to strategy-what's the alternative?. Strategic Management Journal, 32(13): 1517-1523
Maitland, E., Sammartino, A. (2014) Decision making and uncertainty: The role of heuristics and experience in assessing a politically hazardous environment. Strategic Management Journal, 36(10): 1554-1578
Maqsood, T., Finegan, A., Walker, D. (2008) Biases and heuristics in judgment and decision making: The dark side of tacit knowledge. Informing Science and Information Technology, 295-301; 1; doi: 10.28945/740
March, J.G. (1994) A primer on decision making: How decisions happen. New York, itd: Free Press
McKenzie, J., van Winkelen, C., Grewal, S. (2011) Developing organisational decision‐making capability: a knowledge manager's guide. Journal of Knowledge Management, 15(3): 403-421
Menon, A. (2017) Bringing cognition into strategic interactions: Strategic mental models and open questions. Strategic Management Journal, 39(1): 168-192
Mustilli, M., Piccolo, R., d`Angelo Eugenio (2018) Cross-Country Differences in How Behavioral Biases Affect Decision-Making in the Bank Industry: Evidence from Italy and Serbia. American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 08(02): 239-249
Parnell, G.S., Bresnick, T.A., Tani, S.N., Johnson, E.R., Bresnick, T.A., Parnell, G.S. (2013) Decision-Making Challenges. u: Handbook of Decision Analysis, Hoboken, NJ, USA: Wiley, str. 22-45
Pavličić, D. (2015) Teorija odlučivanja. Beograd: Ekonomski fakultet Univerziteta u Beogradu
Riaz, T., Iqbal, H. (2015) Impact of overconfidence, illusion of control, self control and optimism bias on investors decision making: Evidence from developing markets. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 6(11): 110-116
Roxburg, C. (2003) Hidden flaws in strategy. The McKinsey Quarterly, 27(2), 21-30. Retrieved January 28, 2018, from https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/hidden-flaws-in-strategy
Samuelson, W., Zeckhauser, R. (1988) Status quo bias in decision making. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1(1): 7-59
Simon, H.A. (1966) Theories of Decision-Making in Economics and Behavioural Science. American Economic Review, 9(3), 253-283
Simon, H.A. (1955) A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69(1): 99
Simon, M., Houghton, S.M. (2003) The Relationship between Overconfidence and the Introduction of Risky Products: Evidence from a Field Study. Academy of Management Journal, 46(2): 139-149
Sklad, M., Diekstra, R. (2014) The Development of the Heuristics and Biases Scale (HBS). Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 112: 710-718
Tiwana, A., Wang, J., Keil, M., Ahluwalia, P. (2007) The Bounded Rationality Bias in Managerial Valuation of Real Options: Theory and Evidence from IT Projects. Decision Sciences, 38(1): 157-181
Tversky, A., Kahneman, D. (1974) Jjudgement under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124-1131
Wang, P. (1996) Heuristics and normative models of judgment under uncertainty. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 14(4): 221-235
Zlatanović, D. (2010) Strukturiranje upravljačkih problemskih situacija Metodologijom soft sistema. Ekonomski horizonti, 12(2): 95-112
Zlatanović, D., Nikolić, J. (2017) Strategic Decision Making From the Viewpoint of Systems Thinking. IGI Global, str. 98-118
 

O članku

jezik rada: srpski, engleski
vrsta rada: pregledni članak
DOI: 10.5937/ekonhor1801045N
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 11.05.2018.
Creative Commons License 4.0

Povezani članci

Anali Pravnog fak Beograd (2017)
Why do borrowers choose suboptimal mortgage contracts?: A behavioral economics approach
Odorović Ana

Privredna izgradnja (1996)
Kritičko tumačenje konstitucionalnog shvatanja ekonomskog rasta
Lošonc Alpar N.

Strani pravni život (2013)
Ekonomska analiza proporcionalne odgovornosti
Mojašević Aleksandar, i dr.

prikaži sve [31]