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2020, vol. 22, br. 2, str. 83-98
Novokejnzijanska Filipsova kriva i efekti domaćih pokretača inflacije u Republici Srbiji
Univerzitet u Kragujevcu, Ekonomski fakultet

e-adresavmihajlovic@kg.ac.rs
Sažetak
Istraživanje u radu odnosi se na ocenu validnosti novokejnzijanske Filipsove krive u kontekstu privrede Republike Srbije (RS). Empirijskom analizom kvantifikovan je uticaj domaćih pokretača na stopu inflacije - inflacionih očekivanja, realnih graničnih troškova i output gepa. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da inflacija u RS intenzivnije reaguje na negativne nego na pozitivne šokove ponude i tražnje, odnosno, značajnije opada tokom perioda kontrakcije privrede nego što raste tokom faze ekspanzije. Ocenjeni model novokejnzijanske Filipsove krive, u kojem figurišu granični troškovi, pruža nedvosmislene dokaze da se unapređenjem produktivnosti usporava rast troškovne inflacije kao komponente ukupne inflacije. Uticaj očekivane na stvarnu inflaciju je statistički značajan, iako u dinamici inflacije preovlađuje inerciona komponenta, to jest, efekat prošlih stopa inflacije na tekuću stopu. Empirijski nalazi o modelu Filipsove krive sa output gepom ukazuju da monetarna ekspanzija u RS, između ostalog, može da stimuliše privrednu aktivnost bez stvaranja značajnijih inflatornih pritisaka.
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O članku

jezik rada: srpski, engleski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
DOI: 10.5937/ekonhor2002089M
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 02.09.2020.
Creative Commons License 4.0

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