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2005, vol. 48, br. 3-4, str. 155-170
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Osvrt na redux model deviznog kursa
A review of the Redux model of exchange rate
Univerzitet u Novom Sadu, Ekonomski fakultet, Subotica, Srbija
Ključne reči: nova makroekonomija otvorene privrede; redux model; modeli deviznog kursa
Keywords: new open economy macroeconomics; Redux model; exchange rate modeling
Sažetak
U radu je dat kratak pregled aktuelnih modela determinacije deviznog kursa. U prvom delu rada bilo je reči o Mundall-Fleming-Dornbusch modelu, koji je pokazao neporecivu privlačnost u primeni tokom vremena. Međutim, neophodno ga je bilo usavršiti, pre svega jačim mikroekonomskim fundamentima. Jača mikroekonomska potpora omogućena je redux modelom, koji je uneo novine i omogućio konkretnu analizu uticaja monetarne politike na blagostanje potrošača. Literatura na temu nove makroekonomije otvorene privrede je u ekspanziji od kraja 90-tih godina prošlog veka, isprovocirana radom Obstfelda i Rogoffa 1995. u kom oni daju svoje viđenje reakcija privrede na monetarne šokove objašnjavajući ih redux modelom. Redux model pretpostavlja realan uticaj monetarnih šokova na potrošnju, nivo autputa i devizni kurs iako važe pariteti kupovne moći i pravilo jedinstvene cene. Blagostanje se uvećava u jednakom iznosu u domaćoj i inostranoj privredi nakon neočekivanog pozitivnog monetarnog šoka, a proizvodnja vodi privredu bliže efikasnoj onoj ostvarivoj na tržištu potpune konkurencije. Prilagođavanje privrede nastupa nakon jednog perioda. Monetarni šokovi mogu imati realne efekte duže od ispravki nominalnih rigidnosti, jer se povećanje kratkoročnog blagostanja kumulira preko tekućeg računa. Uticaj novca je prisutan čak i u dugom roku što implicira odsustvo neutralnosti novca. Zaključci doneseni na osnovu literature iz oblasti nove makroekonomije otvorene privrede, sa aspekta blagostanja, su veoma osetljivi na pretpostavke od kojih se polazi u modelima. Osnovne pretpostavke modela su u procesu evaluacije i korekcije, a rezultat su novi modeli kojima se pokušava objasniti uticaj šokova. Istovremeno ostaje težnja definisanja primenljive državne politike. Konsenzus nije postignut u vezi sa osnovnim stavovima u makroekonomiji a potvrde teorijskih modela još nisu na zadovoljavujućem nivou. Dalja istraživanja i empirijske potvrde tek predstoje.
Abstract
The paper gives a brief overview of the current state of exchange rate modeling. First section discusses the status of Mundall-Fleming-Dornbusch model. This model demonstrated undeniable time-tested appeal. However, it needed update as regards to microfundations which was made possible in Redux model. Redux model made a breakthrough as to allow for an explicit welfare analysis as far as policy is concerned. The literature covering new open economy macroeconomics is expanding since 1990s, provoked by seminal paper by Obstfeld and Rogofff, in which authors give their perspective of economy reactions to monetary shocks. Redux model assumes real impact of monetary shocks on consumption, output level and exchange rates, allowing for purchasing power parity and low of one price to hold. Welfare is equally increased both domestically and internationally after positive monetary shock. Consumption increases leading economy towards its optimum, reachable only at perfectly competitive markets. Economy is fully adapted to shock only after one time period. However, monetary shocks could have longer real effects due to accumulated welfare. Money is not neutral in this modei, not even in the long run. The welfare results of the new open economy macroeconomics literature are highly sensitive to the precise denomination of price stickiness and the specification of preferences. For this reason the literature is of only limited interest in policy circles. This new developments in models will encourage further research in the new open economy macroeconomics.
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