2014, vol. 60, br. 2, str. 129-138
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Zemlje u tranziciji i rizik ulaganja kapitala
Countries in transition and capital investment risk
Keywords: transition countries; country's risk and sovereignty risk; political and economic uncertainty; joint investments; managing foreign investment risk
Sažetak
Najveći rizik za većinu međunarodnih investitora je rizik zemlje i rizik suvereniteta. Rizik zemlje najčešće podrazumeva rizik političke i ekonomska neizvesnosti. Zemlje u tranziciji karakteriše veliki budžetski deficit, inflacija, apresijacija domaće valute, nestabilni uslovi razmene, niska akumulacija, ograničenja i restrikcije na tržištu. Posebnu vrstu rizika predstavlja tržišna koncentracija i monopol. Od ostalih faktora koji povećavaju rizik ulaganja inostranog kapitala u zemljama u tranziciji treba istaći rizik plaćanja, tržišni rizik, operativni rizik, vanbilansni rizici, konsolidacija i konvergencija, pranje novca, ofšor poslovanje, neadekvatna prudenciona kontrola banaka i drugih finansijskih posrednika, izražena korupcija i kriminal. Usled sineregtskog delovanja ovih faktora, države u tranziciji mogu biti izložene riziku opadanja međunarodne reputacije.
Abstract
For the majority of international investors, country's risk and sovereignty risk are the greatest risks. Country's risk usually includes political and economic uncertainty. Transition countries are characterized by big budget deficit, inflation, domestic currrency appreciation, inconstant exchange terms, low accumulation, limits and market restrictons. Special risk type is market concentration and monopoly. Other factors increasing foreign capital investment in transition countries are payment risk, market risk, operating risk, off-balance sheet risks, consolidation and convergence, money laundering, off-shore business, inadequate prudential control of banks and other financial mediators, outstanding corruption and criminal. Due to sinergetic action of these factors, transition states may be exposed to the risk of international reputation decrease.
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