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2016, vol. 44, br. 1, str. 113-131
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Značaj domaćih izvora finansiranja za ekonomski rast u zemljama jugoistočne Evrope
The significance of domestic financing for economic growth in the South East European countries
aEkonomski institut, Beograd, Srbija bUniverzitet Singidunum, Poslovni fakultet, Beograd, Srbija cUniverzitet Singidunum, FEFA - Fakultet za ekonomiju, finansije i administraciju - FEFA, Beograd, Srbija
e-adresa: sanja.filipovic@ecinst.org.rs
Projekat: Mogućnosti poboljšanja intelektualnih, motoričkih i kardio-respiratornih sposobnosti dece pomoću kinezioloških aktivnosti (MPNTR - 179011)
Evropske integracije i društveno-ekonomske promene privrede Srbije na putu ka EU (MPNTR - 47009)
Sažetak
U zemljama Jugoistočne Evrope bankarski krediti predstavljaju najznačajniji vid finansiranja s obzirom da je finansijsko tržište nedovoljno razvijeno. Banke u ovim zemljama su privukle značajan iznos inostranih sredstava i imaju značajnu ulogu u kreiranju ekonomskog rasta. Kako banke odobravaju kredite na bazi plasmana inostranog kapitala i domaćih depozita, cilj rada je da utvrdi značaj domaćih izvora finansiranja na ekonomski rast u periodu nakon redukovanja plasmana iz inostranstva. Istraživanje je sprovedeno na uzorku od osam izabranih zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope (zemlje Zapadnog Balkana i tri zemlje koje su u međuvremenu postale članice Evropske unije - Bugarska, Hrvatska i Rumunija - SEE-8) u vremenskom periodu 2007-2012. godine. Primenjen je panel data model gde je kao zavisna promenljiva uzeta stopa rasta BDP-a, a kao nezavisne promenljive analizirane su stope rasta sledećih parametara: aktiva, kreditni potencijal, učešće zajmova u BDP-a, kreditni potencijal stanovništva, depozitni potencijal, depozit stanovništva, učešće depozita stanovništva u ukupnim depozitima pasive. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da stopa rasta aktive, stopa rasta depozita stanovništva i stopa rasta učešća depozita stanovništva imaju pozitivan uticaj na ekonomski rast, dok učešće zajmova u BDP-u, stopa rasta kredita stanovništvu i stopa rasta depozitnog potencijala imaju negativan uticaj na ekonomski rast u SEE-8.
Abstract
In the South East Europe countries, bank loans are common and the most important form of financing, due to still underdeveloped financial market. The banks in these countries gained a considerable amount of foreign funds and play a prominent role in the growth of local economy. Given that banks grant loans based on investments of foreign capital and domestic deposits, the aim of this paper is to determine the importance of domestic sources of financing for the economic growth in the period after the reduction of foreign investments. The survey was conducted on a sample of eight selected countries of South East Europe (Western Balkans along with three countries that became members of the European Union during 20072012 - Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania - SEE-8). The panel data model was applied, where the GDP growth rate was taken as the dependent variable, while the analyzed independent variables were growth rates of the following parameters: assets, loan capacity, the participation of loans in GDP, loan capacity of the population, deposit capacity, deposit of the population, participation of household deposits in total deposit liabilities. The research results indicate that the growth rate of assets, the growth rate of household deposits and the growth rate of retail deposits have a positive impact on economic growth, while the share of loans in GDP, the growth rate of loans to households and the growth rate of deposit capacity have a negative impact on economic growth in SEE-8.
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