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2016, vol. 63, br. 1, str. 89-105
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Modeli predviđanja stečajnog postupka poljoprivrednih preduzeća u Republici Srbiji
Bankruptcy prediction models in the Serbian agricultural sector
Projekat: Unapređenje konkurentnosti Srbije u procesu pristupanja Evropskoj uniji (MPNTR - 47028)
Keywords: Altman's Z-score; DF model; Quick test; models of predicting bankruptcy proceedings
Sažetak
Cilj ovog rada je prikazivanje različitih modela za predviđanje mogućnosti otvaranja stečajnog postupka u kompanijama u Srbiji, kao i istraživanje koji modeli su najpogodniji za kompanije iz sektora poljoprivrede. U radu su korišćena i prikazana tri modela: Altmanov Z-score model, Kralicekov DF model i Quick test. Ovom tematikom se bavilo dosta autora, međutim, većina njih je razvijala modele na razvijenim tržištima, koja se razlikuju od tržišta Srbije. Težnja ka unapređenju analize i predviđanja stečaja dovela je do upoređivanja referentnih vrednosti, da bi se na kraju došlo do konkretnih modela za procenu poteškoća u funkcionisanju preduzeća. S tim u vezi na uzorku od pet preduzeća koja posluju na teritoriji Republike Srbije, primenili smo tri modela koji koriste standardne finansijske pokazatelje za prikazivanje finansijskog stanja i stabilnosti preduzeća. Rezultati ukazuju da Kralicekov DF model ukazuje na bolje finansijsko stanje preduzeća nego što je ono prikazano Altmanovim Z-score modelom, upravo zbog karakteristika tržišta na kome je model formiran.
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to present different models for predicting the possibility of opening bankruptcy proceedings in companies in Serbia, as well as to research which models are most suitable for companies in the agricultural sector. In this paper, we have used and displayed three models: the Altman 's Z-score model, Kralicek's DF model and Quick test. Many authors have dealt with this issue, but most of them have developed models for developed markets, which are different from market of Serbia. Striving towards improving the analysis and prediction of bankruptcy has led to comparison of the reference value, in order to obtain concrete models for the evaluation of difficulty in the functioning of the company. In this connection, on a sample of five companies operating on the territory of the Republic of Serbia, we have applied three models that used standard financial indicators to show the financial condition and stability of the company. Results suggest that Kralicek's DF model indicates better financial state of the company than Altman 's Z-score model, considering the characteristics of the market in which the model is formed.
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