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2013, vol. 61, br. 1-2, str. 63-82
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Mikroekonomske osnove (strukturnih promena) poslovanja privrede Srbije u periodu od 2007-2011. godine i izazovi za naredni period
Microeconomic fundamentals (of the structural changes) of the Serbian economy in the period 2007 - 2011 and forthcoming challenges
aHypo-Alpe-Adria bank Serbia, Belgrade
bAltis Capital, Belgrade
Sažetak
Ovaj članak ima za cilj da odredi i analizira strukturne promene u srpskoj ekonomiji u periodu koji se proteže između 2007. i 2011. godine. Ovaj period je bio oličen izbijanjem svetske ekonomske i finansijske krize, čiji su se efekti prelili u Srbiju krajem 2008. Određujući efekte krize na srpsku ekonomiju, unapređujemo pristup u tom pogledu sto analizi makroekonomskih trendova (kao načinu da se opiše široka slika poslovnog okruženja) dodajemo i, komplementarnu, analizu podataka sa nivoa preduzeća, tj. mikroekonomske fundamente firmi obuhvaćenih reprezentativnim skupom najvećih srpskih kompanija. Oslanjajući se na bazu finansijskih podataka za 5,000 najvećih kompanija u periodu između 2007. i 2011. (korišćenu za statističku analizu finansijskih performansi), kao i za 500 najvećih za 2011. i 2010. (korišćenu za dopunu prethodnog prikaza pristupom 'od slučaja do slučaja'), pokušavamo da donesemo zaključke o osnovnim strukturnim promenama unutar kompanija i unutar sektora, kao i izdvojimo glavne odlike finansijske pozicije celog realnog sektora. Konačno, utvrđujemo spisak predstojećih izazova i ciljeva koji se postavljaju pred srpsku ekonomiju u celini, kao i pred donosioce ekonomskih odluka.
Abstract
This paper aims to detect and analyze the structural changes in the Serbian economy in the period spanning from 2007 to 2011. This period was characterized by the eruption of the global financial and economic crisis, which spilled over in Serbia from late 2008. By pinpointing the crisis' effects on Serbian economy, we improve the approach by complementing the macroeconomic trends analysis (as a way to describe the general environment) with the firm-level data analysis, i.e. microeconomic fundamentals of the representative sample of the largest Serbian companies. Relying on the financial database of the 5,000 largest for the period from 2007 to 2011 used for statistical analysis of financial performances, and 500 largest for 2011 and 2010 used for complementing previous overall view with the case by case approach, we are trying to draw conclusions on the key structural changes within the companies and sectors of activities as well as the main characteristics of the financial position of the real sector. Finally, we make a list of imminent challenges and goals confronting the Serbian economy as a whole, and economic decision makers in particular.
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Reference
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*** (2006/2011) Law on accounting and audit. Official Gazette of the Republic of Serbia, 46/2006,111/2009 and 99/2011
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*** (2001/2007) Law on privatization. Official Gazette of the Republic of Serbia, 38/01,18/03, 45/05, and 123/07
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*** (2009/2011) Law on stimulating of the construction industry in the conditions of the economic crisis. Official Gazette of the Republic of Serbia, 72/09, 81/09 - correction, 64/10-US and 24/11
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