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2020, vol. 68, br. 1-2, str. 35-51
Migracije s istoka na zapad Evrope - da li Srbija može da odoli naletima vetra?
aSrpska akademija nauke i umetnosti (SANU), Beograd + Fiscal Council of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade
bFiscal Council of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade
Sažetak
Rastuća tražnja Zapadne Evrope za obučenom radnom snagom usisava najvrednije ljudske resurse zemalja CEE i tako ugrožava njihovu ekonomsku perspektivu. Ocenjeni ekonometrijski model pokazuje da su emigracijama najviše pogođene zemlje CEE koje imaju najlošije uređenu državu: visoku korupciju, nizak nivo vladavine prava i loš kvalitet javnih usluga (zdravstvo, prosveta i drugo). Iseljavanje je veće i iz onih zemalja CEE koje imaju olakšan pristup evropskom tržištu rada, bolje obrazovano stanovništvo i nizak životni standard. Model pokazuje da će emigracija mladog i kvalifikovanog stanovništva Srbije dodatno da poraste u narednih pet godina za 20-30% čak i uz relativno visok rast BDP-a od 4%. Međutim, ukoliko Srbija u narednim godinama dostigne institucionalne standarde koji su uobičajeni u CEE, trend rasta emigracija bi se preokrenuo i smanjio za 10-15% u odnosu na sadašnji nivo. Povećanje zarada, čak i ukoliko bi bilo ekstremno snažno, ne može da ima presudnu ulogu u smanjenju emigracija iz Srbije.
Reference
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O članku

jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
DOI: 10.5937/EKOPRE2002035P
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 15.06.2020.

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