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2016, vol. 45, iss. 4, pp. 94-109
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Analysis of empirical determinants of credit risk in the banking sector of the Republic of Serbia
Analiza empirijskih determinanti kreditnog rizika u bankarskom sektoru Republike Srbije
Project: Advancing Serbia's Competitiveness in the Process of EU Accession (MESTD - 47028)
Abstract
The aim of this paper is the detection and analysis of empirical determinants of credit risk in the banking sector of the Republic of Serbia. The paper is based on an analysis of results of the application of the linear regression model, during the period from the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2014. There are three main findings. Firstly, the higher lending activity of banks contributes to the increasing share of high-risk loans in the total withdrawn loans (delayed effect of 3 years). Secondly, the growth of loans as opposed to deposits contributes to the increased exposure of banks to credit risk. Thirdly, the factors that reduce the exposure of banks to credit risk increase profitability, growth of interest rate spread and real GDP growth. Bearing in mind the overall market conditions and dynamics of the economic recovery of the country, there is a general conclusion based on the results that in the coming period the question of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Republic of Serbia will present a challenge for both lenders and borrowers.
Sažetak
Cilj ovog rada je otkrivanje i analiza empirijskih determinanti kreditnog rizika u bankarskom sektoru Republike Srbije. Rad je baziran na analizi rezultata primene linearnog regresionog modela, u vremenskom periodu od trećeg kvartala 2008. do trećeg kvartala 2014. godine. Tri su osnovna nalaza istraživanja. Prvo, veća kreditna aktivnost banaka doprinosi povećanju udela visoko rizičnih kredita u ukupnim kreditima (zakasneli efekat od 3 godine). Drugo, rast kreditnih plasmana u odnosu na depozite doprinosi većoj izloženosti banaka kreditnom riziku. Treće, faktori koji smanjuju izloženost kreditnom riziku banaka su rast profitabilnosti, rast kamatnog spreda i realni rast bruto domaćeg proizvoda. Imajući u vidu sveukupne tržišne okolnosti i dinamiku privrednog oporavka zemlje, na osnovu rezultata se može izvesti generalni zaključak da će u narednom periodu pitanje visoko rizičnih kredita u Republici Srbiji biti aktuelan izazov i za kreditore i za korisnike kredita.
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*** (2015) Izveštaj o rezultatima ankete o kreditnoj aktivnosti - prvo tromesečje 2015. Beograd: Narodna banka Srbije, maj, (http://www.nbs.rs/export/sites/default/internet/latinica/90/anketa_kab/kab_izv_I_2015.pdf, 15.12.2015)
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