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2015, vol. 43, br. 3, str. 159-170
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Doprinos turističke industrije rastu BDP-a u zemljama Zapadnog Balkana
The contribution of tourism industry on the GDP growth of Western Balkan countries
aUniverzitet Singidunum, Fakultet za turistički i hotelijerski menadžment, Beograd, Srbija bUniverzitet Singidunum, Poslovni fakultet, Beograd, Srbija
e-adresa: mknezevic@singidunum.ac.rs
Sažetak
Turistička industrija beleži različite ekonomske, društvene, političke i druge uticaje koji joj obezbeđuju važnu poziciju u ukupnom privrednom razvoju velikog broja zemalja. Analiziranje dostupnih podataka o kretanju turista i noćenjima koja su ostvarili u zemljama koje smo posmatrali navelo nas je da naše istraživanje usmerimo ka izračunavanju doprinosa turizma ukupnom ekonomskom rastu. Koristeći modifikovanu metodologiju koju su upotrebili Brida, Pereyra i Deves (2008), za izračunavanje stope rasta realnog GDP-a i doprinosa turizma ukupnom ekonomskom rastu, u ovom radu smo pokazali da turizam, uprkos kontinuiranom povećanju broja stranih turista, ima skroman direktni doprinos ukupnom ekonomskom rastu zemalja Zapadnog Balkana (Srbija, Makedonija, Crna Gora). Stepen doprinosa turizma ekonomskom rastu u posmatranim zemljama je različit i značajno vezan za raznovrsnost i kvalitet ponude (najveći doprinos ekonomskom rastu turizam ima u Crnoj Gori a najmanji u Makedoniji).
Abstract
Tourism industry records various economic, social, political and others influences and provides itself important position in the overall economic development of many countries. The analysis of the available data of tourist arrivals and number of tourist overnight stays in observed countries of the Western Balkans (Serbia, Macedonia, Montenegro) led us to conduct research in order to determine tourism contribution to the overall economic growth. Based on the modified methodology used by Brida et al. (2008) for calculating real GDP growth rates and tourism contribution to the overall economic growth, the paper indicates that tourism makes a modest direct contribution to the overall economic growth in the examined countries, regardless of the continuous increase in the number of foreign tourist arrivals. The level of tourism contribution to the overall economic growth varies and it is primarily related to diversity and quality of supply (the highest contribution is recorded in Montenegro, while lowest contribution is observed in Macedonia).
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