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2018, vol. 15, br. 1, str. 110-122
Bihevioralna ekonomija - koliko dobro investitori u Srbiji predviđaju cene akcija?
Univerzitet Singidunum, Beograd

e-adresadoracapa@yahoo.com
Ključne reči: bihevioralne finansije; iracionalni investitor; predviđanje cena akcija; investicioni sentiment; tržišni šum
Sažetak
Većina ekonomskih modela je bazirana na teoriji efikasnih tržišta koja između ostalog pretpostavlja da su svi investitori racionalni. Bihevioralne studije, sa druge strane, istražuju iracionalne aspekte ljudskog ponašanja i procesa donošenja odluka. Ove studije ukazuju da date iracionalnosti mogu izazvati greške i slabosti u ekonomskom zaključivanju. Cilj ovog rada je da istraži koliko dobro investitori u Srbiji predviđaju buduće cene akcija. Ovo istraživanje je inspirisano sličnim istraživanjima sprovedenim u drugim zemljama. Istraživanje analizira uzajamni odnos dva indeksa Beogradske berze: BELEX 15 (predstavlja tržišno kretanje cena) i BELEX Sentiment (predstavlja agregatno predviđanje investitora o kretanju budućih cena). Sa metodološkog stanovišta, ova analiza je sprovedena korišćenjem Vektorsko Autoregresionog modela (VAR) i Grandžerovog modela kauzalnosti. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da investitori u Srbiji nisu veoma uspešni u predviđanju budućih cena. U idealnoj situaciji BELEX Sentiment bi trebalo da može da predvidi kretanje BELEXa 15, međutim ovo istraživanje pokazuje da BELEX15 utiče na kretanje Sentimenta, a ne obrnuto. Iz toga možemo zaključiti da investitori u Srbiji baziraju svoja očekivanja na istorijskom kretanju cena. Rezultati ovog istraživanja su u skladu sa rezultatima sličnih istraživanja sprovedenih u drugim zemljama u razvoju.
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O članku

jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: izvorni naučni članak
DOI: 10.5937/EJAE15-16665
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 26.04.2018.
metod recenzije: dvostruko anoniman
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