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2021, vol. 13, br. 2, str. 29-41
Okunov zakon i ocjena stimulansa za ekonomiju Bosne i Hercegovine
Univerzitet u Zenici, Ekonomski fakultet, Federacija BiH

e-adresajasmin.halebic@unze.ba
Ključne reči: Okunov zakon; ekonomski rast; stopa nezaposlenosti; MMF finansijska podrška; Bosna i Hercegovina
Sažetak
Efekti pandemije korona virusa su sveprisutni u ekonomiji Bosne i Hercegovine. Proizvodnja i nezaposlenost su vjerovatno najvažnije varijable iz makroekonomske perspektive za mjerenje negativnih efekata pandemije. Različite organizacije, državne i međunarodne, su objavile svoje jesenje i zimske prognoze tih varijabli za 2020. godinu. Nijedna od njih nije optimistična. Ekonomija u BiH se nalazi u najtežoj situaciji u posljednja dva desetljeća. Međunarodni monetarni fond je odobrio hitnu podršku od 361 mil USD za BiH u 2020. g. radi ublažavanja negativnih ekonomskih posljedica COVID-19. Cilj rada jest istražiti potencijalni ekonomski utjecaj te finansijske podrške primjenom jednostavne aritmetike. U radu se Okunov zakon koristi kao metodološki okvir za ocjenu efekata MMF-ovog brzog finansijskog instrumenta. Estimirana je povezanost između realnog ekonomskog rasta i promjena stope nezaposlenosti u BiH. Nalazi rada pokazuju da finansijska podrška MMF-a čini oko 3.7% BDP-a u BiH. Efekti na stopu nezaposlenosti su procijenjeni na 2.3 procentna boda manje od nivoa stope nezaposlenosti koja bi, u protivnom, nastala. Budući da rane estimacije BDP-a u BiH ukazuju na duboku recesiju u 2020. g. ova finansijska podrška se pokazala nedovoljnim stimulansom za ekonomiju BiH. Donositelji odluka u zemlji trebaju biti svjesni svoje odgovornosti za osiguranje većih stimulansa kako bi se izbjegli negativni ekonomski i socijalni ishodi u bliskoj budućnosti.
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O članku

jezik rada: engleski
vrsta rada: neklasifikovan
DOI: 10.5937/bhekofor2102029H
objavljen u SCIndeksu: 12.05.2021.

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