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2020, vol. 22, br. 2, str. 149-160
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Očekivane tendencije BDP-a tri vodeće globalne ekonomije tokom 2020-ih - da li je na pomolu rebalans (geo)ekonomske moći?
The expected tendencies of the GDP of the three leading global economies in 2020: Is a rebalance of (geo)economic power arriving?
aInstitut za evropske studije, Beograd, Srbija bInstitut društvenih nauka, Beograd, Srbija
e-adresa: gorandrnikolic@gmail.com
Projekat: Ministarstvo prosvete, nauke i tehnološkog razvoja Republike Srbije (institucija: Institut za evropske studije, Beograd) (MPNTR - 451-03-68/2020-14/200008)
Ministarstvo prosvete, nauke i tehnološkog razvoja Republike Srbije (institucija: Institut društvenih nauka, Beograd) (MPNTR - 451-03-68/2020-14/200004)
Sažetak
Međunarodni monetarni fond (International Monetary Fund - IMF) predviđa postepeno usporavanje, inače snažnog, rasta kineske ekonomije u prvoj polovini 2020-ih, te anemičan rast zapadnih ekonomija: SAD i posebno EU27. Imajući u vidu praktičnu (i simboličku) važnost dostizanja statusa ekonomije "broj jedan", osnovni cilj rada je procenjivanje tendencija BDP-a (i BDP-a PPP) posmatranih ekonomija tokom naredne decenije. Glavni doprinos i nalaz ovog rada je procena budućih kretanja BDP-a za SAD, Kinu i EU27 u periodu 2025-30, na osnovu prethodnih trendova i projekcija IMF-a za 2020-24. Kineska privreda će postati globalno vodeća 2029-2030. Na osnovu izvršenih kalkulacija dokazana je osnovna istraživačka hipoteza, imajući u vidu da promene u globalnoj ekonomskoj poziciji impliciraju značajne geopolitičke posledice. Naime, dok će SAD, skoro izvesno, tokom 2020-ih ostati vodeća globalna sila, a EU nastaviti da bude fokusirana na sebe, ekonomski rast Kine će imati rastuće globalne konsenkvence, podstičući kretanje ka disperziji autoriteta. Taj zaključak je u skladu sa tvrdnjama većine relevantnih autora, koji potenciraju sve limitiraniju mogućnost SAD za unilateralne akcije.
Abstract
IMF forecasts a gradual slowdown in the, otherwise strong, growth of the Chinese economy in the first half of the 2020s, and the anemic growth of the Western economies: the US and, especially, the EU27. Given the practical (and symbolic) importance of reaching 'the number one economy' status, the primary objective of the paper is to estimate the GDP (and the GDP PPP) of the observed economies over the next decade. The main contribution and finding of this paper is the estimation of future GDP trends for the US, China and the EU27 in the period 2025-30, based on the previous trends and the IMF 2020-24 projections. China's economy will become globally leading in 2029-2030. The basic research hypothesis is proven, given the fact that a change in the global economic position implies significant geopolitical consequences. Namely, while the US will almost certainly remain the leading global power in the 2020s, with the EU still continuing to focus on itself, China's economic growth will have rising global consequences, fueling the move towards the dispersion of authority. This conclusion is in line with the claims of the majority of the relevant authors who emphasize the increasingly limited possibility of the US unilateral actions.
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